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Predictions › United States › Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche
NHLFri 23 Oct, 21:00 United States time

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche prediction

Ball Arena

Tampa Bay LightningAway
3.0 : 3.6
projected goals
Colorado AvalancheHome
40%Lightning
60%Avalanche
Eagle safe pickAvalanche +1
-333

Quick answer

Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche is Colorado Avalanche to win, with a 60% chance. We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.0 and Colorado Avalanche 3.6. Our best bet is Avalanche +1 at -333.

Prediction
Colorado Avalanche to win
Chance
60%
Projected score
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Colorado Avalanche 4
Projected total
6.6 goals
Best bet
Avalanche +1 at -333

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Avalanche +1
77% chanceFair price -3332 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lightning to win
37% chanceFair price +1681 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Colorado Avalanche 60% and Tampa Bay Lightning 40%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Colorado Avalanche won 3 of their last 5 and Tampa Bay Lightning won 4 of their last 5. Tampa Bay Lightning come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Colorado Avalanche won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Tampa Bay Lightning won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Colorado Avalanche score 3.8 goals a game and let in 3.0. Tampa Bay Lightning score 2.5 and let in 2.5. Their recent games average 6.8 and 5.0 goals in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Colorado Avalanche won 1 and Tampa Bay Lightning won 1. The last one ended Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Colorado Avalanche 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Avalanche +1 has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Avalancherest between games-5%
  • Lightningrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche: Colorado Avalanche are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Colorado Avalanche host Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL on Fri 23 Oct, 21:00 at Ball Arena. Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche is Colorado Avalanche to win, with a 60% chance. We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.0 and Colorado Avalanche 3.6. Our best bet is Avalanche +1 at -333.

Colorado Avalanche form

Colorado Avalanche have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 75 goals scored and 60 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Tampa Bay Lightning form

Tampa Bay Lightning have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 50 goals scored and 51 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Colorado Avalanche won 1, Tampa Bay Lightning won 1. Last time out it finished Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Colorado Avalanche 2.

Our call

We expect Tampa Bay Lightning to score about 3.0 goals and Colorado Avalanche about 3.6. That points to Colorado Avalanche to win. Our safest bet is Avalanche +1 at -333. Our bold bet is Lightning to win at +168.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AvalancheLightning
Games played2020
Wins1111
Losses99
Goals scored7550
Goals conceded6051
Scored per game3.82.5
Conceded per game3.02.5
Home record7W 3L6W 5L
Away record4W 6L5W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Avalanche spreadCoversFair
Avalanche -1.536%+177
Avalanche -0.552%-110
Avalanche +0.568%-216
Total goalsOverUnder
5.568%32%
6.551%49%
7.534%66%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Avalanche +3.5 wins if Avalanche win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NHL

Dave Hakstol in Talks for Arizona State Head Coaching Job

Arizona State is in discussions with Avalanche assistant Dave Hakstol about its head coaching vacancy, with a decision expected this week.

12 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche?

Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche is Colorado Avalanche to win, with a 60% chance. We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.0 and Colorado Avalanche 3.6. Our best bet is Avalanche +1 at -333.

What is the projected score for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche?

We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.0 and Colorado Avalanche 3.6, about 6.6 goals in total.

How are Colorado Avalanche playing?

Colorado Avalanche have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 75 goals scored and 60 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Tampa Bay Lightning playing?

Tampa Bay Lightning have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 50 goals scored and 51 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning last met?

It ended Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Colorado Avalanche 2. In the last 2 meetings Colorado Avalanche won 1 and Tampa Bay Lightning won 1.

What is the best bet for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche?

Avalanche +1 at -333, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Avalanche against Lightning. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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