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Predictions › United States › Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders
NHLSat 10 Oct, 19:30 United States time

Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders prediction

UBS Arena

Tampa Bay LightningAway
3.5 : 2.5
projected goals
New York IslandersHome
71%Lightning
29%Islanders
Eagle safe pickOver 4 goals
-444

Quick answer

Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 71% chance. We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.5 and New York Islanders 2.5. Our best bet is Over 4 goals at -444.

Prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Chance
71%
Projected score
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New York Islanders 2
Projected total
6.0 goals
Best bet
Over 4 goals at -444

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 4 goals
82% chanceFair price -4442 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Islanders to win
29% chanceFair price +2391 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives New York Islanders 29% and Tampa Bay Lightning 71%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    New York Islanders won 1 of their last 5 and Tampa Bay Lightning won 2 of their last 5. Tampa Bay Lightning come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    New York Islanders won 4 of their last 12 games at home. Tampa Bay Lightning won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    New York Islanders score 2.2 goals a game and let in 3.4. Tampa Bay Lightning score 2.4 and let in 2.8. Their recent games average 5.5 and 5.2 goals in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, New York Islanders won 3 and Tampa Bay Lightning won 0. The last one ended New York Islanders 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 4 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Islandersrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders: Tampa Bay Lightning are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

New York Islanders host Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL on Sat 10 Oct, 19:30 at UBS Arena. Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 71% chance. We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.5 and New York Islanders 2.5. Our best bet is Over 4 goals at -444.

New York Islanders form

New York Islanders have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 67 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 8 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Tampa Bay Lightning form

Tampa Bay Lightning have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 55 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. New York Islanders won 3, Tampa Bay Lightning won 0. Last time out it finished New York Islanders 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2.

Our call

We expect Tampa Bay Lightning to score about 3.5 goals and New York Islanders about 2.5. That points to Tampa Bay Lightning to win. Our safest bet is Over 4 goals at -444. Our bold bet is Islanders to win at +239.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

IslandersLightning
Games played2020
Wins69
Losses1411
Goals scored4448
Goals conceded6755
Scored per game2.22.4
Conceded per game3.42.8
Home record4W 8L5W 6L
Away record2W 6L4W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Islanders spreadCoversFair
Islanders +0.541%+145
Islanders +1.557%-134
Islanders +2.573%-265
Total goalsOverUnder
4.574%26%
5.558%42%
6.541%59%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Islanders +3.5 wins if Islanders win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NHL

New York Islanders Add Defenseman Logan Stanley On One Year Deal

The New York Islanders have signed defenseman Logan Stanley to a one year contract just days before their season opener against Toronto.

27 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders?

Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 71% chance. We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.5 and New York Islanders 2.5. Our best bet is Over 4 goals at -444.

What is the projected score for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders?

We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.5 and New York Islanders 2.5, about 6.0 goals in total.

How are New York Islanders playing?

New York Islanders have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 67 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 8 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Tampa Bay Lightning playing?

Tampa Bay Lightning have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 55 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning last met?

It ended New York Islanders 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2. In the last 3 meetings New York Islanders won 3 and Tampa Bay Lightning won 0.

What is the best bet for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders?

Over 4 goals at -444, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Islanders against Lightning. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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