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Predictions › United States › Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers
NHLThu 1 Oct, 19:00 United States time

Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers prediction

Madison Square Garden

Tampa Bay LightningAway
3.1 : 2.6
projected goals
New York RangersHome
60%Lightning
40%Rangers
Eagle safe pickRangers +1.5
-218

Quick answer

Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 60% chance. We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.1 and New York Rangers 2.6. Our best bet is Rangers +1.5 at -218.

Prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Chance
60%
Projected score
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, New York Rangers 3
Projected total
5.6 goals
Best bet
Rangers +1.5 at -218

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Rangers +1.5
66% chancePrice -2181 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives New York Rangers 40% and Tampa Bay Lightning 60%. The bookmakers agree and make Tampa Bay Lightning the favourite at -142.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    New York Rangers won 3 of their last 5 and Tampa Bay Lightning won 2 of their last 5. New York Rangers come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    New York Rangers won 6 of their last 13 games at home. Tampa Bay Lightning won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    New York Rangers score 3.2 goals a game and let in 2.8. Tampa Bay Lightning score 2.4 and let in 2.8. Their recent games average 6.0 and 5.2 goals in total, and the market line is 5.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, New York Rangers won 2 and Tampa Bay Lightning won 1. The last one ended Tampa Bay Lightning 2, New York Rangers 4.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Rangers +1.5 has a 66% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Rangersrest between games-2%
  • Lightningrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers: Tampa Bay Lightning are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

New York Rangers host Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL on Thu 1 Oct, 19:00 at Madison Square Garden. Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 60% chance. We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.1 and New York Rangers 2.6. Our best bet is Rangers +1.5 at -218.

New York Rangers form

New York Rangers have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 64 goals scored and 56 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 7 losses from 13. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Tampa Bay Lightning form

Tampa Bay Lightning have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 55 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. New York Rangers won 2, Tampa Bay Lightning won 1. Last time out it finished Tampa Bay Lightning 2, New York Rangers 4.

Our call

We expect Tampa Bay Lightning to score about 3.1 goals and New York Rangers about 2.6. That points to Tampa Bay Lightning to win. Our safest bet is Rangers +1.5 at -218.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

RangersLightning
Games played2020
Wins89
Losses1211
Goals scored6448
Goals conceded5655
Scored per game3.22.4
Conceded per game2.82.8
Home record6W 7L5W 6L
Away record2W 5L4W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Rangers to win40%+153+120-13.1%
Lightning to win54%-119-142-7.6%
Rangers +1.566%-197-218-3.2%
Lightning -1.532%+213+180-10.4%
Over 5.5 goals49%+103-130-12.7%
Under 5.5 goals44%+125+110-6.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Rangers spreadCoversFair
Rangers -0.534%+196
Rangers +0.550%+100
Rangers +1.566%-195
Total goalsOverUnder
4.569%31%
5.552%48%
6.535%65%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Rangers +3.5 wins if Rangers win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers?

Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 60% chance. We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.1 and New York Rangers 2.6. Our best bet is Rangers +1.5 at -218.

What is the projected score for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers?

We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.1 and New York Rangers 2.6, about 5.6 goals in total.

How are New York Rangers playing?

New York Rangers have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 64 goals scored and 56 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 7 losses from 13. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Tampa Bay Lightning playing?

Tampa Bay Lightning have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 55 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning last met?

It ended Tampa Bay Lightning 2, New York Rangers 4. In the last 3 meetings New York Rangers won 2 and Tampa Bay Lightning won 1.

What is the best bet for Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers?

Rangers +1.5 at -218, with a 66% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Rangers against Lightning. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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