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Predictions › United States › Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights
NHLTue 20 Oct, 22:30 United States time

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction

T-Mobile Arena

Tampa Bay LightningAway
3.3 : 3.1
projected goals
Vegas Golden KnightsHome
57%Lightning
43%Golden Knights
Eagle safe pickGolden Knights +2
-358

Quick answer

Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 57% chance, but it is a close call. We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3 and Vegas Golden Knights 3.1. Our best bet is Golden Knights +2 at -358.

Prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Chance
57%
Projected score
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Projected total
6.4 goals
Best bet
Golden Knights +2 at -358

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Golden Knights +2
78% chanceFair price -3582 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Golden Knights to win
43% chanceFair price +1301 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Vegas Golden Knights 43% and Tampa Bay Lightning 57%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Vegas Golden Knights won 4 of their last 5 and Tampa Bay Lightning won 4 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Vegas Golden Knights won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Tampa Bay Lightning won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Vegas Golden Knights score 3.4 goals a game and let in 2.8. Tampa Bay Lightning score 2.5 and let in 2.5. Their recent games average 6.2 and 5.0 goals in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Vegas Golden Knights won 0 and Tampa Bay Lightning won 2. The last one ended Vegas Golden Knights 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Golden Knights +2 has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Golden Knightsrest between games-5%
  • Lightningrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights: Tampa Bay Lightning shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vegas Golden Knights host Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL on Tue 20 Oct, 22:30 at T-Mobile Arena. Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 57% chance, but it is a close call. We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3 and Vegas Golden Knights 3.1. Our best bet is Golden Knights +2 at -358.

Vegas Golden Knights form

Vegas Golden Knights have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 68 goals scored and 56 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Tampa Bay Lightning form

Tampa Bay Lightning have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 50 goals scored and 49 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Vegas Golden Knights won 0, Tampa Bay Lightning won 2. Last time out it finished Vegas Golden Knights 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6.

Our call

We expect Tampa Bay Lightning to score about 3.3 goals and Vegas Golden Knights about 3.1. That points to Tampa Bay Lightning to win. Our safest bet is Golden Knights +2 at -358. Our bold bet is Golden Knights to win at +130.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Golden KnightsLightning
Games played2020
Wins1411
Losses69
Goals scored6850
Goals conceded5649
Scored per game3.42.5
Conceded per game2.82.5
Home record7W 4L6W 5L
Away record7W 2L5W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Golden Knights spreadCoversFair
Golden Knights -0.538%+160
Golden Knights +0.555%-122
Golden Knights +1.571%-239
Total goalsOverUnder
5.565%35%
6.548%52%
7.531%69%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Golden Knights +3.5 wins if Golden Knights win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NHL

Vegas Locks Up Original Misfit William Karlsson With Two Year Extension

The Vegas Golden Knights have signed center William Karlsson to a two year, 13.5 million dollar contract extension.

30 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights?

Our prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 57% chance, but it is a close call. We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3 and Vegas Golden Knights 3.1. Our best bet is Golden Knights +2 at -358.

What is the projected score for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights?

We project Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3 and Vegas Golden Knights 3.1, about 6.4 goals in total.

How are Vegas Golden Knights playing?

Vegas Golden Knights have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 68 goals scored and 56 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Tampa Bay Lightning playing?

Tampa Bay Lightning have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 50 goals scored and 49 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Vegas Golden Knights and Tampa Bay Lightning last met?

It ended Vegas Golden Knights 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6. In the last 2 meetings Vegas Golden Knights won 0 and Tampa Bay Lightning won 2.

What is the best bet for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights?

Golden Knights +2 at -358, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Golden Knights against Lightning. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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