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Predictions › United States › Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies
MLBFri 25 Sept, 18:40 United States time

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction

Citizens Bank Park

Tampa Bay RaysAway
4.2 : 4.5
projected runs
Philadelphia PhilliesHome
47%Rays
53%Phillies
Eagle safe pickRays +2.5
-246

Quick answer

Our prediction for Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies is Philadelphia Phillies to win, with a 53% chance, but it is a close call. We project Tampa Bay Rays 4.2 and Philadelphia Phillies 4.5. Our best bet is Rays +2.5 at -246.

Prediction
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Chance
53%
Projected score
Tampa Bay Rays 4, Philadelphia Phillies 5
Projected total
8.7 runs
Best bet
Rays +2.5 at -246

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Rays +2.5
71% chanceFair price -2461 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Rays to win
44% chanceFair price +1281 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Philadelphia Phillies 53% and Tampa Bay Rays 47%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Philadelphia Phillies won 2 of their last 5 and Tampa Bay Rays won 4 of their last 5. Tampa Bay Rays come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Philadelphia Phillies won 4 of their last 8 games at home. Tampa Bay Rays won 7 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Philadelphia Phillies score 4.1 runs a game and let in 3.8. Tampa Bay Rays score 4.9 and let in 3.5. Their recent games average 7.9 and 8.4 runs in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Philadelphia Phillies won 1 and Tampa Bay Rays won 2. The last one ended Philadelphia Phillies 0, Tampa Bay Rays 7.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Rays +2.5 has a 71% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Philliesrest between games-2%
  • Raysrest between games-2%
  • Philliesteam news-1%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Philadelphia Phillies host Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB on Fri 25 Sept, 18:40 at Citizens Bank Park. Our prediction for Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies is Philadelphia Phillies to win, with a 53% chance, but it is a close call. We project Tampa Bay Rays 4.2 and Philadelphia Phillies 4.5. Our best bet is Rays +2.5 at -246.

Philadelphia Phillies form

Philadelphia Phillies have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 82 runs scored and 76 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Tampa Bay Rays form

Tampa Bay Rays have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 98 runs scored and 71 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Philadelphia Phillies won 1, Tampa Bay Rays won 2. Last time out it finished Philadelphia Phillies 0, Tampa Bay Rays 7.

Our call

We expect Tampa Bay Rays to score about 4.2 runs and Philadelphia Phillies about 4.5. That points to Philadelphia Phillies to win. Our safest bet is Rays +2.5 at -246. Our bold bet is Rays to win at +128.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PhilliesRays
Games played2020
Wins1114
Losses96
Runs scored8298
Runs conceded7671
Scored per game4.14.9
Conceded per game3.83.5
Home record4W 4L7W 2L
Away record7W 5L7W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Phillies spreadCoversFair
Phillies -2.530%+228
Phillies -1.539%+155
Phillies -0.549%+106
Phillies +0.558%-139
Phillies +1.567%-204
Total runsOverUnder
6.569%31%
7.561%39%
8.552%48%
9.543%57%
10.534%66%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Phillies +3.5 wins if Phillies win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
MLB

Phillies Ace Jesús Luzardo Avoids Serious Shoulder Injury

Jesús Luzardo underwent an MRI that revealed no serious damage, though the Phillies will rest his left shoulder for a few days.

13 Sept 2026
MLB

Rays Secure First Playoff Berth After Junior Caminero Walk-Off Homer

Junior Caminero hit a game-ending two-run home run to beat the Houston Astros 3-1 and make the Tampa Bay Rays the first team to clinch a playoff spot.

12 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies?

Our prediction for Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies is Philadelphia Phillies to win, with a 53% chance, but it is a close call. We project Tampa Bay Rays 4.2 and Philadelphia Phillies 4.5. Our best bet is Rays +2.5 at -246.

What is the projected score for Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies?

We project Tampa Bay Rays 4.2 and Philadelphia Phillies 4.5, about 8.7 runs in total.

How are Philadelphia Phillies playing?

Philadelphia Phillies have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 82 runs scored and 76 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Tampa Bay Rays playing?

Tampa Bay Rays have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 98 runs scored and 71 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays last met?

It ended Philadelphia Phillies 0, Tampa Bay Rays 7. In the last 3 meetings Philadelphia Phillies won 1 and Tampa Bay Rays won 2.

What is the best bet for Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies?

Rays +2.5 at -246, with a 71% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Phillies against Rays. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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