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Predictions › United States › New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream
WNBASun 4 Oct, 00:00 United States time

New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream prediction

Gateway Center

New York LibertyAway
91.2 : 92.9
projected points
Atlanta DreamHome
47%Liberty
53%Dream
Eagle safe pickDream +5.5
-299

Quick answer

Our prediction for New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream is Atlanta Dream to win, with a 53% chance, but it is a close call. We project New York Liberty 91.2 and Atlanta Dream 92.9. Our best bet is Dream +5.5 at -299.

Prediction
Atlanta Dream to win
Chance
53%
Projected score
New York Liberty 91, Atlanta Dream 93
Projected total
184.1 points
Best bet
Dream +5.5 at -299

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Dream +5.5
75% chanceFair price -2991 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Liberty to win
41% chanceFair price +1431 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlanta Dream 53% and New York Liberty 47%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlanta Dream won 5 of their last 5 and New York Liberty won 3 of their last 5. Atlanta Dream come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlanta Dream won 7 of their last 10 games at home. New York Liberty won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Atlanta Dream score 94.0 points a game and let in 82.6. New York Liberty score 91.2 and let in 85.8. Their recent games average 176.7 and 176.9 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Atlanta Dream won 2 and New York Liberty won 1. The last one ended New York Liberty 65, Atlanta Dream 83.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Dream +5.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Dreamrest between games-5%
  • Libertyrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream: Atlanta Dream shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlanta Dream host New York Liberty in the WNBA on Sun 4 Oct, 00:00 at Gateway Center. Our prediction for New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream is Atlanta Dream to win, with a 53% chance, but it is a close call. We project New York Liberty 91.2 and Atlanta Dream 92.9. Our best bet is Dream +5.5 at -299.

Atlanta Dream form

Atlanta Dream have 16 wins and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 1881 points scored and 1652 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

New York Liberty form

New York Liberty have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 1824 points scored and 1715 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Atlanta Dream won 2, New York Liberty won 1. Last time out it finished New York Liberty 65, Atlanta Dream 83.

Our call

We expect New York Liberty to score about 91.2 points and Atlanta Dream about 92.9. That points to Atlanta Dream to win. Our safest bet is Dream +5.5 at -299. Our bold bet is Liberty to win at +143.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

DreamLiberty
Games played2020
Wins1614
Losses46
Points scored18811824
Points conceded16521715
Scored per game94.091.2
Conceded per game82.685.8
Home record7W 3L8W 3L
Away record9W 1L6W 3L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Dream spreadCoversFair
Dream -7.530%+236
Dream -4.540%+151
Dream -1.551%-102
Dream +1.561%-158
Dream +4.571%-247
Total pointsOverUnder
178.565%35%
181.557%43%
184.549%51%
187.541%59%
190.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Dream +3.5 wins if Dream win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
WNBA

WNBA Playoffs: Mystics and Wings Face Elimination on Home Court

Washington and Dallas look to rebound at home after tough Game 1 losses in the WNBA playoffs.

18 hours ago
WNBA

Historic Upset: No. 8 Liberty Sweep Top Seeded Lynx

The New York Liberty made history by sweeping the top seeded Minnesota Lynx to advance to the WNBA semifinals.

30 Sept 2026
WNBA

DeWanna Bonner Powers Atlanta Dream Past Mystics in Playoff Opener

DeWanna Bonner sparked a third-quarter run to lift the Atlanta Dream to a 92-77 win over the Washington Mystics in Game 1.

28 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream?

Our prediction for New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream is Atlanta Dream to win, with a 53% chance, but it is a close call. We project New York Liberty 91.2 and Atlanta Dream 92.9. Our best bet is Dream +5.5 at -299.

What is the projected score for New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream?

We project New York Liberty 91.2 and Atlanta Dream 92.9, about 184.1 points in total.

How are Atlanta Dream playing?

Atlanta Dream have 16 wins and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 1881 points scored and 1652 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are New York Liberty playing?

New York Liberty have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 1824 points scored and 1715 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Atlanta Dream and New York Liberty last met?

It ended New York Liberty 65, Atlanta Dream 83. In the last 3 meetings Atlanta Dream won 2 and New York Liberty won 1.

What is the best bet for New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream?

Dream +5.5 at -299, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Dream against Liberty. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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