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Predictions › United States › Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries
WNBASat 17 Oct, 15:30 United States time

Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries prediction

Chase Center

Atlanta DreamAway
76.3 : 78.0
projected points
Golden State ValkyriesHome
49%Dream
51%Valkyries
Eagle safe pickDream +9.5
-307

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries is Golden State Valkyries to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Atlanta Dream 76.3 and Golden State Valkyries 78.0. Our best bet is Dream +9.5 at -307.

Prediction
Golden State Valkyries to win
Chance
51%
Projected score
Atlanta Dream 76, Golden State Valkyries 78
Projected total
154.3 points
Best bet
Dream +9.5 at -307

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Dream +9.5
75% chanceFair price -3072 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Golden State Valkyries 51% and Atlanta Dream 49%. The bookmakers agree and make Golden State Valkyries the favourite at -130.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Golden State Valkyries won 4 of their last 5 and Atlanta Dream won 5 of their last 5. Atlanta Dream come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Golden State Valkyries won 8 of their last 9 games at home. Atlanta Dream won 9 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Golden State Valkyries score 82.5 points a game and let in 73.5. Atlanta Dream score 94.6 and let in 81.8. Their recent games average 156.0 and 176.4 points in total, and the market line is 153.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Golden State Valkyries won 3 and Atlanta Dream won 0. The last one ended Atlanta Dream 83, Golden State Valkyries 88.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Dream +9.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Valkyriesrest between games-5%
  • Dreamrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries: Golden State Valkyries shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Golden State Valkyries host Atlanta Dream in the WNBA on Sat 17 Oct, 15:30 at Chase Center. Our prediction for Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries is Golden State Valkyries to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Atlanta Dream 76.3 and Golden State Valkyries 78.0. Our best bet is Dream +9.5 at -307.

Golden State Valkyries form

Golden State Valkyries have 16 wins and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 1649 points scored and 1471 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Atlanta Dream form

Atlanta Dream have 17 wins and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 1892 points scored and 1636 conceded. Away from home they have 9 wins and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Golden State Valkyries won 3, Atlanta Dream won 0. Last time out it finished Atlanta Dream 83, Golden State Valkyries 88.

Our call

We expect Atlanta Dream to score about 76.3 points and Golden State Valkyries about 78.0. That points to Golden State Valkyries to win. Our safest bet is Dream +9.5 at -307.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ValkyriesDream
Games played2020
Wins1617
Losses43
Points scored16491892
Points conceded14711636
Scored per game82.594.6
Conceded per game73.581.8
Home record8W 1L8W 2L
Away record8W 3L9W 1L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Valkyries to win51%-104-130-9.9%
Dream to win42%+137+110-11.6%
Valkyries -2.544%+128-105-14.5%
Dream +2.549%+103-115-7.9%
Over 153.5 points48%+107-115-9.7%
Under 153.5 points45%+124-105-12.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Valkyries spreadCoversFair
Valkyries -7.530%+236
Valkyries -4.540%+151
Valkyries -1.551%-102
Valkyries +1.561%-159
Valkyries +4.571%-248
Total pointsOverUnder
148.565%35%
151.557%43%
154.549%51%
157.541%59%
160.534%66%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Valkyries +3.5 wins if Valkyries win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
WNBA

Valkyries and Dream Meet in Historic WNBA Finals

The Golden State Valkyries and Atlanta Dream both swept their semifinal series to set up a WNBA Finals clash.

17 min ago
WNBA

Golden State Valkyries Sweep Aces to Reach WNBA Finals

Golden State beat Las Vegas 87-77 in overtime to complete a sweep and advance to the WNBA Finals.

3 hours ago
WNBA

Dream Sweep Liberty to Reach First WNBA Finals Since 2013

Angel Reese and Rhyne Howard combined for 43 points as the Atlanta Dream swept New York to reach the WNBA Finals.

4 hours ago

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries?

Our prediction for Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries is Golden State Valkyries to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Atlanta Dream 76.3 and Golden State Valkyries 78.0. Our best bet is Dream +9.5 at -307.

What is the projected score for Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries?

We project Atlanta Dream 76.3 and Golden State Valkyries 78.0, about 154.3 points in total.

How are Golden State Valkyries playing?

Golden State Valkyries have 16 wins and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 1649 points scored and 1471 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Atlanta Dream playing?

Atlanta Dream have 17 wins and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 1892 points scored and 1636 conceded. Away from home they have 9 wins and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Golden State Valkyries and Atlanta Dream last met?

It ended Atlanta Dream 83, Golden State Valkyries 88. In the last 3 meetings Golden State Valkyries won 3 and Atlanta Dream won 0.

What is the best bet for Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries?

Dream +9.5 at -307, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Valkyries against Dream. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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