Predictions › Netherlands › Telstar vs PEC Zwolle

EredivisieSat 21 Nov, 20:00 Netherlands time

Telstar vs PEC Zwolle prediction

711 Stadion

TelstarHome

1.88 : 1.39

expected goals

PEC ZwolleAway

49%Telstar

24%Draw

28%PEC Zwolle

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Telstar vs PEC Zwolle is Telstar to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction: Telstar to win
Chance: 49%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Telstar 1.9, PEC Zwolle 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score: 64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Telstar to win and Over 2.5

35% chanceFair price 2.891 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Telstar 49%, the draw 24% and PEC Zwolle 28%. The bookmakers agree and make Telstar the favourite at 2.00.
2
Recent form
Telstar took 5 points from their last 5 games and PEC Zwolle took 8 from 5. PEC Zwolle come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Telstar won 4 of their last 10 games at home. PEC Zwolle won 1 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Telstar score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.9. PEC Zwolle score 1.1 and let in 2.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Telstar games and 11 of PEC Zwolle games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Telstar won 0 and PEC Zwolle won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended PEC Zwolle 4, Telstar 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Telstarrecent form-3%
PEC Zwollerecent form+1%

Telstar form D W L L LPEC Zwolle form D W L D WHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Telstar vs PEC Zwolle: Telstar are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Telstar host PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie on Sat 21 Nov, 20:00 at 711 Stadion. Our prediction for Telstar vs PEC Zwolle is Telstar to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Telstar form

Telstar have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 38 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, D, newest first.

PEC Zwolle form

PEC Zwolle have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 44 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Telstar won 0, PEC Zwolle won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished PEC Zwolle 4, Telstar 1.

Our call

We expect Telstar to score about 1.9 goals and PEC Zwolle about 1.4. That points to Telstar to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Telstar to win and Over 2.5 at 2.89.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Telstar	PEC Zwolle
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	5
Draws	5	5
Losses	9	10
Goals scored	32	22
Goals conceded	38	44
Scored per game	1.6	1.1
Conceded per game	1.9	2.2
Home record	4W 2D 4L	4W 2D 5L
Away record	2W 3D 5L	1W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	10%	15%
Both teams scored	65%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	75%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Telstar to win	45%	2.20	2.00	-9.2%
A Draw	23%	4.36	3.60	-17.3%
PEC Zwolle to win	27%	3.65	3.30	-9.6%
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.85	1.57	-15.1%
Under 2.5 goals	39%	2.57	2.20	-14.2%
Telstar -0.5	45%	2.23	1.91	-14.5%
PEC Zwolle +0.5	48%	2.07	1.71	-17.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	84%	1.18
Over 2.5 goals	64%	1.57
Over 3.5 goals	41%	2.41
Both teams to score	64%	1.55
Telstar or Draw	72%	1.39
PEC Zwolle or Draw	52%	1.94
Telstar to win and Over 2.5	35%	2.84
PEC Zwolle to win and Over 2.5	20%	5.11
Telstar clean sheet	25%	4.02
PEC Zwolle clean sheet	15%	6.58

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.5%

2-19.3%

1-26.9%

2-06.7%

1-06.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?

Our prediction for Telstar vs PEC Zwolle is Telstar to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Telstar to score 1.9 goals and PEC Zwolle 1.4.

Will both teams score in Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Telstar last 20 games and 11 of PEC Zwolle last 20.

How are Telstar playing?

How are PEC Zwolle playing?

What happened when Telstar and PEC Zwolle last met?

It ended PEC Zwolle 4, Telstar 1. In the last 1 meeting Telstar won 0 and PEC Zwolle won 1.

What is the best bet for Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Telstar against PEC Zwolle. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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