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Predictions › United States › Texas State Bobcats vs San Diego State Aztecs
College FootballSat 3 Oct, 22:30 United States time

Texas State Bobcats vs San Diego State Aztecs prediction

Snapdragon Stadium

Texas State BobcatsAway
30.9 : 27.4
projected points
San Diego State AztecsHome
63%Texas St
37%San Diego St
Eagle safe pickUnder 68.5 points
-295

Quick answer

Our prediction for Texas State Bobcats vs San Diego State Aztecs is Texas State Bobcats to win, with a 63% chance. We project Texas State Bobcats 30.9 and San Diego State Aztecs 27.4. Our best bet is Under 68.5 points at -295.

Prediction
Texas State Bobcats to win
Chance
63%
Projected score
Texas State Bobcats 31, San Diego State Aztecs 27
Projected total
58.3 points
Best bet
Under 68.5 points at -295

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 68.5 points
75% chanceFair price -2951 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives San Diego State Aztecs 37% and Texas State Bobcats 63%. The bookmakers agree and make Texas State Bobcats the favourite at -175.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    San Diego State Aztecs won 1 of their last 5 and Texas State Bobcats won 3 of their last 5. Texas State Bobcats come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    San Diego State Aztecs won 6 of their last 8 games at home. Texas State Bobcats won 1 of their last 6 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    San Diego State Aztecs score 25.3 points a game and let in 18.6. Texas State Bobcats score 34.9 and let in 29.9. Their recent games average 43.9 and 64.9 points in total, and the market line is 58.5.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 68.5 points has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • San Diego Strest between games-5%
  • Texas Strest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Texas State Bobcats vs San Diego State Aztecs: Texas State Bobcats are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

San Diego State Aztecs host Texas State Bobcats in the College Football on Sat 3 Oct, 22:30 at Snapdragon Stadium. Our prediction for Texas State Bobcats vs San Diego State Aztecs is Texas State Bobcats to win, with a 63% chance. We project Texas State Bobcats 30.9 and San Diego State Aztecs 27.4. Our best bet is Under 68.5 points at -295.

San Diego State Aztecs form

San Diego State Aztecs have 9 wins and 6 losses in their last 15 games, with 380 points scored and 279 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Texas State Bobcats form

Texas State Bobcats have 7 wins and 8 losses in their last 15 games, with 524 points scored and 449 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 5 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Texas State Bobcats to score about 30.9 points and San Diego State Aztecs about 27.4. That points to Texas State Bobcats to win. Our safest bet is Under 68.5 points at -295.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 15 games in all competitions.

San Diego StTexas St
Games played1515
Wins97
Losses68
Points scored380524
Points conceded279449
Scored per game25.334.9
Conceded per game18.629.9
Home record6W 2L6W 3L
Away record3W 4L1W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
San Diego St to win37%+172+145-9.9%
Texas St to win58%-136-175-9.5%
San Diego St +3.547%+113-110-10.5%
Texas St -3.547%+113-110-10.5%
Over 58.5 points46%+116-112-12.2%
Under 58.5 points47%+111-108-8.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

San Diego St spreadCoversFair
San Diego St -3.533%+202
San Diego St +0.543%+135
San Diego St +3.550%+100
San Diego St +6.557%-135
San Diego St +10.567%-202
Total pointsOverUnder
51.566%34%
55.557%43%
58.550%50%
61.542%58%
65.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. San Diego St +3.5 wins if San Diego St win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Texas State Bobcats vs San Diego State Aztecs?

Our prediction for Texas State Bobcats vs San Diego State Aztecs is Texas State Bobcats to win, with a 63% chance. We project Texas State Bobcats 30.9 and San Diego State Aztecs 27.4. Our best bet is Under 68.5 points at -295.

What is the projected score for Texas State Bobcats vs San Diego State Aztecs?

We project Texas State Bobcats 30.9 and San Diego State Aztecs 27.4, about 58.3 points in total.

How are San Diego State Aztecs playing?

San Diego State Aztecs have 9 wins and 6 losses in their last 15 games, with 380 points scored and 279 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Texas State Bobcats playing?

Texas State Bobcats have 7 wins and 8 losses in their last 15 games, with 524 points scored and 449 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 5 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Texas State Bobcats vs San Diego State Aztecs?

Under 68.5 points at -295, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in San Diego St against Texas St. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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