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Predictions › Mexico › Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul
Liga MXSat 7 Nov, 23:00 Mexico time

Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul prediction

Estadio Universitario

Tigres UANLHome
1.61 : 1.44
expected goals
Cruz AzulAway
41%Tigres
25%Draw
34%Cruz Azul
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul is Tigres UANL to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
Tigres UANL to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Tigres UANL 1.6, Cruz Azul 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Tigres UANL to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.701 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Tigres UANL 41%, the draw 25% and Cruz Azul 34%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Tigres UANL took 8 points from their last 5 games and Cruz Azul took 11 from 5. Cruz Azul come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Tigres UANL won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Cruz Azul won 7 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Tigres UANL score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.2. Cruz Azul score 2.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Tigres UANL games and 15 of Cruz Azul games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Tigres UANL won 0 and Cruz Azul won 1 with 3 draws. The last one ended Cruz Azul 2, Tigres UANL 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Tigresrecent form+1%
  • Cruz Azulrecent form+3%
Tigres form D L D W WCruz Azul form D W W D DHome edge in this league 29% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul: Tigres UANL shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Tigres UANL host Cruz Azul in the Liga MX on Sat 7 Nov, 23:00 at Estadio Universitario. Our prediction for Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul is Tigres UANL to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Tigres UANL form

Tigres UANL have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Cruz Azul form

Cruz Azul have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Tigres UANL won 0, Cruz Azul won 1 and 3 games ended level. Last time out it finished Cruz Azul 2, Tigres UANL 1.

Our call

We expect Tigres UANL to score about 1.6 goals and Cruz Azul about 1.4. That points to Tigres UANL to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Tigres UANL to win and Over 2.5 at 3.70.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

TigresCruz Azul
Games played2020
Wins712
Draws74
Losses64
Goals scored2642
Goals conceded2429
Scored per game1.32.1
Conceded per game1.21.4
Home record6W 2D 1L5W 3D 2L
Away record1W 5D 5L7W 1D 2L
Clean sheets30%20%
Both teams scored55%70%
Over 2.5 goals35%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.23
Over 2.5 goals59%1.70
Over 3.5 goals36%2.75
Both teams to score62%1.62
Tigres UANL or Draw66%1.51
Cruz Azul or Draw59%1.70
Tigres UANL to win and Over 2.528%3.58
Cruz Azul to win and Over 2.523%4.44
Tigres UANL clean sheet24%4.21
Cruz Azul clean sheet20%5.00

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.7%
2-18.8%
1-27.9%
1-07.0%
2-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?

Our prediction for Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul is Tigres UANL to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Tigres UANL to score 1.6 goals and Cruz Azul 1.4.

Will both teams score in Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Tigres UANL last 20 games and 14 of Cruz Azul last 20.

How are Tigres UANL playing?

Tigres UANL have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Cruz Azul playing?

Cruz Azul have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul last met?

It ended Cruz Azul 2, Tigres UANL 1. In the last 4 meetings Tigres UANL won 0 and Cruz Azul won 1.

What is the best bet for Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Tigres against Cruz Azul. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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