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Predictions › Mexico › Tigres UANL vs Toluca
Liga MXSat 10 Oct, 03:00 Mexico time

Tigres UANL vs Toluca prediction

Estadio Universitario

Tigres UANLHome
1.36 : 0.96
expected goals
TolucaAway
45%Tigres
29%Draw
26%Toluca
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Tigres UANL vs Toluca is Tigres UANL to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
Tigres UANL to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Tigres UANL 1.4, Toluca 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.361 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Tigres UANL 45%, the draw 29% and Toluca 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Tigres UANL took 6 points from their last 5 games and Toluca took 10 from 5. Toluca come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Tigres UANL won 6 of their last 8 games at home. Toluca won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Tigres UANL score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. Toluca score 2.0 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Tigres UANL games and 13 of Toluca games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Tigres UANL won 1 and Toluca won 1 with 2 draws. The last one ended Toluca 1, Tigres UANL 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Tolucarecent form+3%
Tigres form W L D D DToluca form D L W W WHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Tigres UANL vs Toluca: Tigres UANL are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Tigres UANL host Toluca in the Liga MX on Sat 10 Oct, 03:00 at Estadio Universitario. Our prediction for Tigres UANL vs Toluca is Tigres UANL to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

Tigres UANL form

Tigres UANL have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, D, newest first.

Toluca form

Toluca have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Tigres UANL won 1, Toluca won 1 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Toluca 1, Tigres UANL 1.

Our call

We expect Tigres UANL to score about 1.4 goals and Toluca about 1.0. That points to Tigres UANL to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.36.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

TigresToluca
Games played2020
Wins79
Draws74
Losses67
Goals scored2741
Goals conceded2326
Scored per game1.42.0
Conceded per game1.11.3
Home record6W 2D 0L5W 2D 3L
Away record1W 5D 6L4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets35%30%
Both teams scored55%60%
Over 2.5 goals40%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%1.47
Over 2.5 goals41%2.44
Over 3.5 goals21%4.86
Both teams to score47%2.14
Tigres UANL or Draw74%1.34
Toluca or Draw55%1.83
Tigres UANL to win and Over 2.524%4.22
Toluca to win and Over 2.512%8.00
Tigres UANL clean sheet38%2.61
Toluca clean sheet26%3.92

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%
1-012.6%
0-010.5%
2-09.1%
2-18.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Tigres UANL vs Toluca?

Our prediction for Tigres UANL vs Toluca is Tigres UANL to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Tigres UANL vs Toluca?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Tigres UANL to score 1.4 goals and Toluca 1.0.

Will both teams score in Tigres UANL vs Toluca?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Tigres UANL last 20 games and 12 of Toluca last 20.

How are Tigres UANL playing?

Tigres UANL have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, D, newest first.

How are Toluca playing?

Toluca have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Tigres UANL and Toluca last met?

It ended Toluca 1, Tigres UANL 1. In the last 4 meetings Tigres UANL won 1 and Toluca won 1.

What is the best bet for Tigres UANL vs Toluca?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Tigres against Toluca. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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