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Predictions › Mexico › Tijuana vs Atlas
Liga MXSat 26 Sept, 03:00 Mexico time

Tijuana vs Atlas prediction

Estadio Caliente

TijuanaHome
1.56 : 0.76
expected goals
AtlasAway
56%Tijuana
27%Draw
17%Atlas
Eagle safe pickTijuana or Draw
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Tijuana vs Atlas is Tijuana to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Tijuana or Draw at 1.19.

Prediction
Tijuana to win
Chance
56%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Tijuana 1.6, Atlas 0.8
Best bet
Tijuana or Draw at 1.19
Both teams to score
43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Tijuana or Draw
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Tijuana to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.701 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Tijuana 56%, the draw 27% and Atlas 17%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Tijuana took 7 points from their last 5 games and Atlas took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Tijuana won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Atlas won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Tijuana score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.1. Atlas score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Tijuana games and 8 of Atlas games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Tijuana won 1 and Atlas won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlas 2, Tijuana 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Tijuana or Draw has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Tijuanarecent form-1%
Tijuana form L W L W LAtlas form L D L W WHome edge in this league 33% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Tijuana vs Atlas: Tijuana are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Tijuana host Atlas in the Liga MX on Sat 26 Sept, 03:00 at Estadio Caliente. Our prediction for Tijuana vs Atlas is Tijuana to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Tijuana or Draw at 1.19.

Tijuana form

Tijuana have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Atlas form

Atlas have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Tijuana won 1, Atlas won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlas 2, Tijuana 1.

Our call

We expect Tijuana to score about 1.6 goals and Atlas about 0.8. That points to Tijuana to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Tijuana or Draw at 1.19. Our bold bet is Tijuana to win and Over 2.5 at 3.70.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

TijuanaAtlas
Games played2020
Wins87
Draws65
Losses68
Goals scored2421
Goals conceded2127
Scored per game1.21.1
Conceded per game1.11.4
Home record6W 3D 2L2W 4D 4L
Away record2W 3D 4L5W 1D 4L
Clean sheets35%35%
Both teams scored50%50%
Over 2.5 goals45%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%1.47
Over 2.5 goals41%2.45
Over 3.5 goals20%4.91
Both teams to score43%2.34
Tijuana or Draw83%1.21
Atlas or Draw44%2.25
Tijuana to win and Over 2.529%3.45
Atlas to win and Over 2.58%12.74
Tijuana clean sheet47%2.14
Atlas clean sheet21%4.74

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-014.7%
1-112.4%
2-012.0%
0-010.6%
2-19.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Tijuana vs Atlas?

Our prediction for Tijuana vs Atlas is Tijuana to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Tijuana or Draw at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Tijuana vs Atlas?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Tijuana to score 1.6 goals and Atlas 0.8.

Will both teams score in Tijuana vs Atlas?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Tijuana last 20 games and 10 of Atlas last 20.

How are Tijuana playing?

Tijuana have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Atlas playing?

Atlas have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Tijuana and Atlas last met?

It ended Atlas 2, Tijuana 1. In the last 2 meetings Tijuana won 1 and Atlas won 1.

What is the best bet for Tijuana vs Atlas?

Tijuana or Draw at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Tijuana against Atlas. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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