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Predictions › Mexico › Tijuana vs Puebla
Liga MXSat 17 Oct, 03:00 Mexico time

Tijuana vs Puebla prediction

Estadio Caliente

TijuanaHome
1.53 : 0.76
expected goals
PueblaAway
55%Tijuana
27%Draw
18%Puebla
Eagle safe pickTijuana or Draw
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Tijuana vs Puebla is Tijuana to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Tijuana or Draw at 1.26.

Prediction
Tijuana to win
Chance
55%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Tijuana 1.5, Puebla 0.8
Best bet
Tijuana or Draw at 1.26
Both teams to score
43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Tijuana or Draw
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Tijuana to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.571 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Tijuana 55%, the draw 27% and Puebla 18%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Tijuana took 4 points from their last 5 games and Puebla took 4 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Tijuana won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Puebla won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Tijuana score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.3. Puebla score 1.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Tijuana games and 9 of Puebla games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Tijuana won 0 and Puebla won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Tijuana 0, Puebla 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Tijuana or Draw has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Tijuanarecent form-3%
  • Pueblarecent form-3%
Tijuana form L D L W LPuebla form L D L W LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Tijuana vs Puebla: Tijuana are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Tijuana host Puebla in the Liga MX on Sat 17 Oct, 03:00 at Estadio Caliente. Our prediction for Tijuana vs Puebla is Tijuana to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Tijuana or Draw at 1.26.

Tijuana form

Tijuana have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Puebla form

Puebla have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Tijuana won 0, Puebla won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Tijuana 0, Puebla 0.

Our call

We expect Tijuana to score about 1.5 goals and Puebla about 0.8. That points to Tijuana to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Tijuana or Draw at 1.26. Our bold bet is Tijuana to win and Over 2.5 at 3.57.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

TijuanaPuebla
Games played2020
Wins86
Draws64
Losses610
Goals scored2820
Goals conceded2528
Scored per game1.41.0
Conceded per game1.31.4
Home record6W 2D 3L2W 4D 3L
Away record2W 4D 3L4W 0D 7L
Clean sheets30%20%
Both teams scored60%55%
Over 2.5 goals55%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals67%1.48
Over 2.5 goals40%2.49
Over 3.5 goals20%5.01
Both teams to score43%2.35
Tijuana or Draw82%1.22
Puebla or Draw45%2.21
Tijuana to win and Over 2.528%3.53
Puebla to win and Over 2.58%12.49
Tijuana clean sheet47%2.15
Puebla clean sheet22%4.62

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-014.7%
1-112.5%
2-011.8%
0-010.8%
2-19.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Tijuana vs Puebla?

Our prediction for Tijuana vs Puebla is Tijuana to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Tijuana or Draw at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Tijuana vs Puebla?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Tijuana to score 1.5 goals and Puebla 0.8.

Will both teams score in Tijuana vs Puebla?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Tijuana last 20 games and 11 of Puebla last 20.

How are Tijuana playing?

Tijuana have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Puebla playing?

Puebla have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Tijuana and Puebla last met?

It ended Tijuana 0, Puebla 0. In the last 2 meetings Tijuana won 0 and Puebla won 1.

What is the best bet for Tijuana vs Puebla?

Tijuana or Draw at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Tijuana against Puebla. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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