Predictions › Mexico › Toluca vs Atlético de San Luis

Liga MXSun 18 Oct, 01:00 Mexico time

Toluca vs Atlético de San Luis prediction

Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega

TolucaHome

2.55 : 1.32

expected goals

Atlético de San LuisAway

64%Toluca

19%Draw

18%Atl. San Luis

Eagle safe pickToluca or Draw

1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Toluca vs Atlético de San Luis is Toluca to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Toluca or Draw at 1.26.

Prediction: Toluca to win
Chance: 64%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: Toluca 2.5, Atlético de San Luis 1.3
Best bet: Toluca or Draw at 1.26
Both teams to score: 68%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Toluca or Draw

80% chanceFair price 1.262 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Toluca to win and both score

37% chanceFair price 2.711 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Toluca 64%, the draw 19% and Atlético de San Luis 18%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Toluca took 10 points from their last 5 games and Atlético de San Luis took 9 from 5. Toluca come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Toluca won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Atlético de San Luis won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Toluca score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.3. Atlético de San Luis score 1.3 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Toluca games and 12 of Atlético de San Luis games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Toluca won 0 and Atlético de San Luis won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Toluca 1, Atlético de San Luis 1.
6
The safest bet
Toluca or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Tolucarecent form+3%
Atl. San Luisrecent form+1%

Toluca form D L W W WAtl. San Luis form W W L L WHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Toluca vs Atlético de San Luis: Toluca are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Toluca host Atlético de San Luis in the Liga MX on Sun 18 Oct, 01:00 at Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega. Our prediction for Toluca vs Atlético de San Luis is Toluca to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Toluca or Draw at 1.26.

Toluca form

Toluca have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Atlético de San Luis form

Atlético de San Luis have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Toluca won 0, Atlético de San Luis won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Toluca 1, Atlético de San Luis 1.

Our call

We expect Toluca to score about 2.5 goals and Atlético de San Luis about 1.3. That points to Toluca to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Toluca or Draw at 1.26. Our bold bet is Toluca to win and both score at 2.71.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Toluca	Atl. San Luis
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	6
Draws	4	5
Losses	7	9
Goals scored	41	26
Goals conceded	26	32
Scored per game	2.0	1.3
Conceded per game	1.3	1.6
Home record	5W 2D 3L	3W 3D 5L
Away record	4W 2D 4L	3W 2D 4L
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	90%	1.11
Over 2.5 goals	74%	1.35
Over 3.5 goals	54%	1.85
Both teams to score	68%	1.47
Toluca or Draw	82%	1.22
Atlético de San Luis or Draw	36%	2.74
Toluca to win and Over 2.5	52%	1.93
Atlético de San Luis to win and Over 2.5	14%	7.32
Toluca clean sheet	27%	3.75
Atlético de San Luis clean sheet	8%	12.76

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.0%

3-17.6%

1-17.5%

2-06.8%

2-25.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Toluca vs Atlético de San Luis?

Our prediction for Toluca vs Atlético de San Luis is Toluca to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Toluca or Draw at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Toluca vs Atlético de San Luis?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 3-1 and 1-1. We expect Toluca to score 2.5 goals and Atlético de San Luis 1.3.

Will both teams score in Toluca vs Atlético de San Luis?

Both teams to score has a 68% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Toluca last 20 games and 12 of Atlético de San Luis last 20.

How are Toluca playing?

How are Atlético de San Luis playing?

What happened when Toluca and Atlético de San Luis last met?

It ended Toluca 1, Atlético de San Luis 1. In the last 1 meeting Toluca won 0 and Atlético de San Luis won 0.

What is the best bet for Toluca vs Atlético de San Luis?

Toluca or Draw at 1.26, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Toluca against Atl. San Luis. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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