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Predictions › Mexico › Toluca vs Monterrey
Liga MXSun 8 Nov, 01:00 Mexico time

Toluca vs Monterrey prediction

Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega

TolucaHome
2.22 : 1.39
expected goals
MonterreyAway
56%Toluca
21%Draw
23%Monterrey
Eagle safe pickToluca or Draw
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Toluca vs Monterrey is Toluca to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Toluca or Draw at 1.29.

Prediction
Toluca to win
Chance
56%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
Toluca 2.2, Monterrey 1.4
Best bet
Toluca or Draw at 1.29
Both teams to score
67%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Toluca or Draw
78% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Toluca to win and Over 2.5
42% chanceFair price 2.351 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Toluca 56%, the draw 21% and Monterrey 23%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Toluca took 4 points from their last 5 games and Monterrey took 7 from 5. Monterrey come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Toluca won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Monterrey won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Toluca score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.3. Monterrey score 1.5 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Toluca games and 12 of Monterrey games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Toluca won 3 and Monterrey won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Monterrey 0, Toluca 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Toluca or Draw has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Tolucarecent form-1%
  • Monterreyrecent form+1%
Toluca form D D D L DMonterrey form D W W D LHome edge in this league 29% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Toluca vs Monterrey: Toluca are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Toluca host Monterrey in the Liga MX on Sun 8 Nov, 01:00 at Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega. Our prediction for Toluca vs Monterrey is Toluca to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Toluca or Draw at 1.29.

Toluca form

Toluca have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Monterrey form

Monterrey have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Toluca won 3, Monterrey won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Monterrey 0, Toluca 1.

Our call

We expect Toluca to score about 2.2 goals and Monterrey about 1.4. That points to Toluca to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Toluca or Draw at 1.29. Our bold bet is Toluca to win and Over 2.5 at 2.35.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

TolucaMonterrey
Games played2020
Wins87
Draws64
Losses69
Goals scored3930
Goals conceded2631
Scored per game1.91.5
Conceded per game1.31.6
Home record5W 3D 3L5W 1D 5L
Away record3W 3D 3L2W 3D 4L
Clean sheets25%20%
Both teams scored65%65%
Over 2.5 goals60%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals88%1.14
Over 2.5 goals70%1.43
Over 3.5 goals49%2.06
Both teams to score67%1.49
Toluca or Draw77%1.30
Monterrey or Draw44%2.27
Toluca to win and Over 2.544%2.29
Monterrey to win and Over 2.517%5.87
Toluca clean sheet25%3.99
Monterrey clean sheet11%9.20

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.3%
1-18.9%
3-16.9%
2-06.7%
2-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Toluca vs Monterrey?

Our prediction for Toluca vs Monterrey is Toluca to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Toluca or Draw at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Toluca vs Monterrey?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 3-1. We expect Toluca to score 2.2 goals and Monterrey 1.4.

Will both teams score in Toluca vs Monterrey?

Both teams to score has a 67% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Toluca last 20 games and 13 of Monterrey last 20.

How are Toluca playing?

Toluca have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Monterrey playing?

Monterrey have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Toluca and Monterrey last met?

It ended Monterrey 0, Toluca 1. In the last 4 meetings Toluca won 3 and Monterrey won 1.

What is the best bet for Toluca vs Monterrey?

Toluca or Draw at 1.29, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Toluca against Monterrey. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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