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Predictions › Mexico › Toluca vs Tijuana
Liga MXThu 22 Oct, 01:00 Mexico time

Toluca vs Tijuana prediction

Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega

TolucaHome
2.41 : 1.04
expected goals
TijuanaAway
67%Toluca
19%Draw
14%Tijuana
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Toluca vs Tijuana is Toluca to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction
Toluca to win
Chance
67%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
Toluca 2.4, Tijuana 1.0
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Toluca to win and both score
34% chanceFair price 2.961 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Toluca 67%, the draw 19% and Tijuana 14%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Toluca took 7 points from their last 5 games and Tijuana took 5 from 5. Toluca come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Toluca won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Tijuana won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Toluca score 2.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Tijuana score 1.4 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Toluca games and 11 of Tijuana games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Toluca won 1 and Tijuana won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Toluca 1, Tijuana 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Tolucarecent form+1%
  • Tijuanarecent form-1%
  • Tolucarest between games-2%
  • Tijuanarest between games-5%
Toluca form D D L W WTijuana form D L D L WHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Toluca vs Tijuana: Toluca are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Toluca host Tijuana in the Liga MX on Thu 22 Oct, 01:00 at Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega. Our prediction for Toluca vs Tijuana is Toluca to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Toluca form

Toluca have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Tijuana form

Tijuana have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Toluca won 1, Tijuana won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Toluca 1, Tijuana 0.

Our call

We expect Toluca to score about 2.4 goals and Tijuana about 1.0. That points to Toluca to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Toluca to win and both score at 2.96.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

TolucaTijuana
Games played2020
Wins98
Draws36
Losses86
Goals scored4228
Goals conceded2825
Scored per game2.11.4
Conceded per game1.41.3
Home record5W 1D 3L6W 1D 3L
Away record4W 2D 5L2W 5D 3L
Clean sheets30%30%
Both teams scored60%60%
Over 2.5 goals70%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals86%1.16
Over 2.5 goals67%1.49
Over 3.5 goals45%2.20
Both teams to score59%1.68
Toluca or Draw86%1.17
Tijuana or Draw33%3.04
Toluca to win and Over 2.551%1.97
Tijuana to win and Over 2.510%10.33
Toluca clean sheet35%2.84
Tijuana clean sheet9%11.16

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.6%
2-09.2%
1-18.4%
3-17.7%
3-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Toluca vs Tijuana?

Our prediction for Toluca vs Tijuana is Toluca to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Toluca vs Tijuana?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Toluca to score 2.4 goals and Tijuana 1.0.

Will both teams score in Toluca vs Tijuana?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Toluca last 20 games and 12 of Tijuana last 20.

How are Toluca playing?

Toluca have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Tijuana playing?

Tijuana have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Toluca and Tijuana last met?

It ended Toluca 1, Tijuana 0. In the last 2 meetings Toluca won 1 and Tijuana won 0.

What is the best bet for Toluca vs Tijuana?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Toluca against Tijuana. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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