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Predictions › United States › Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators
NHLWed 23 Sept, 00:00 United States time

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators prediction

Canadian Tire Centre

Toronto Maple LeafsAway
2.6 : 3.8
projected goals
Ottawa SenatorsHome
28%Maple Leafs
72%Senators
Eagle safe pickMaple Leafs +3
-472

Quick answer

Our prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators is Ottawa Senators to win, with a 72% chance. We project Toronto Maple Leafs 2.6 and Ottawa Senators 3.8. Our best bet is Maple Leafs +3 at -472.

Prediction
Ottawa Senators to win
Chance
72%
Projected score
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Ottawa Senators 4
Projected total
6.4 goals
Best bet
Maple Leafs +3 at -472

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Maple Leafs +3
83% chanceFair price -4722 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Maple Leafs to win
28% chanceFair price +2581 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Ottawa Senators 72% and Toronto Maple Leafs 28%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Ottawa Senators won 1 of their last 5 and Toronto Maple Leafs won 0 of their last 5. Ottawa Senators come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Ottawa Senators won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Toronto Maple Leafs won 3 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Ottawa Senators score 2.9 goals a game and let in 2.6. Toronto Maple Leafs score 2.8 and let in 4.2. Their recent games average 5.5 and 7.0 goals in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Ottawa Senators won 4 and Toronto Maple Leafs won 1. The last one ended Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Maple Leafs +3 has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Senatorsrest between games-3%
  • Maple Leafsrest between games-3%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Ottawa Senators host Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL on Wed 23 Sept, 00:00 at Canadian Tire Centre. Our prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators is Ottawa Senators to win, with a 72% chance. We project Toronto Maple Leafs 2.6 and Ottawa Senators 3.8. Our best bet is Maple Leafs +3 at -472.

Ottawa Senators form

Ottawa Senators have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 58 goals scored and 52 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Toronto Maple Leafs form

Toronto Maple Leafs have 5 wins and 15 losses in their last 20 games, with 55 goals scored and 84 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 9 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Ottawa Senators won 4, Toronto Maple Leafs won 1. Last time out it finished Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1.

Our call

We expect Toronto Maple Leafs to score about 2.6 goals and Ottawa Senators about 3.8. That points to Ottawa Senators to win. Our safest bet is Maple Leafs +3 at -472. Our bold bet is Maple Leafs to win at +258.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SenatorsMaple Leafs
Games played2020
Wins105
Losses1015
Goals scored5855
Goals conceded5284
Scored per game2.92.8
Conceded per game2.64.2
Home record7W 4L2W 6L
Away record3W 6L3W 9L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Senators spreadCoversFair
Senators -2.529%+251
Senators -1.544%+127
Senators -0.560%-153
Total goalsOverUnder
5.565%35%
6.548%52%
7.532%68%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Senators +3.5 wins if Senators win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators?

Our prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators is Ottawa Senators to win, with a 72% chance. We project Toronto Maple Leafs 2.6 and Ottawa Senators 3.8. Our best bet is Maple Leafs +3 at -472.

What is the projected score for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators?

We project Toronto Maple Leafs 2.6 and Ottawa Senators 3.8, about 6.4 goals in total.

How are Ottawa Senators playing?

Ottawa Senators have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 58 goals scored and 52 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Toronto Maple Leafs playing?

Toronto Maple Leafs have 5 wins and 15 losses in their last 20 games, with 55 goals scored and 84 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 9 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs last met?

It ended Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1. In the last 5 meetings Ottawa Senators won 4 and Toronto Maple Leafs won 1.

What is the best bet for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators?

Maple Leafs +3 at -472, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Senators against Maple Leafs. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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