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Predictions › United States › Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights
NHLThu 8 Oct, 22:00 United States time

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction

T-Mobile Arena

Toronto Maple LeafsAway
3.0 : 3.8
projected goals
Vegas Golden KnightsHome
36%Maple Leafs
64%Golden Knights
Eagle safe pickOver 5 goals
-402

Quick answer

Our prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights is Vegas Golden Knights to win, with a 64% chance. We project Toronto Maple Leafs 3.0 and Vegas Golden Knights 3.8. Our best bet is Over 5 goals at -402.

Prediction
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Chance
64%
Projected score
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Projected total
6.9 goals
Best bet
Over 5 goals at -402

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 5 goals
80% chanceFair price -4022 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Maple Leafs to win
33% chanceFair price +1991 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Vegas Golden Knights 64% and Toronto Maple Leafs 36%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Vegas Golden Knights won 3 of their last 5 and Toronto Maple Leafs won 2 of their last 5. Vegas Golden Knights come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Vegas Golden Knights won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Toronto Maple Leafs won 4 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Vegas Golden Knights score 3.3 goals a game and let in 2.8. Toronto Maple Leafs score 2.9 and let in 3.9. Their recent games average 6.0 and 6.8 goals in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Vegas Golden Knights won 2 and Toronto Maple Leafs won 0. The last one ended Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Vegas Golden Knights 6.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Golden Knightsrest between games-2%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights: Vegas Golden Knights are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vegas Golden Knights host Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL on Thu 8 Oct, 22:00 at T-Mobile Arena. Our prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights is Vegas Golden Knights to win, with a 64% chance. We project Toronto Maple Leafs 3.0 and Vegas Golden Knights 3.8. Our best bet is Over 5 goals at -402.

Vegas Golden Knights form

Vegas Golden Knights have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 66 goals scored and 55 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Toronto Maple Leafs form

Toronto Maple Leafs have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 58 goals scored and 77 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 8 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Vegas Golden Knights won 2, Toronto Maple Leafs won 0. Last time out it finished Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Vegas Golden Knights 6.

Our call

We expect Toronto Maple Leafs to score about 3.0 goals and Vegas Golden Knights about 3.8. That points to Vegas Golden Knights to win. Our safest bet is Over 5 goals at -402. Our bold bet is Maple Leafs to win at +199.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Golden KnightsMaple Leafs
Games played2020
Wins136
Losses714
Goals scored6658
Goals conceded5577
Scored per game3.32.9
Conceded per game2.83.9
Home record6W 4L2W 6L
Away record7W 3L4W 8L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Golden Knights spreadCoversFair
Golden Knights -1.538%+164
Golden Knights -0.554%-119
Golden Knights +0.570%-233
Total goalsOverUnder
5.572%28%
6.556%44%
7.539%61%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Golden Knights +3.5 wins if Golden Knights win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights?

Our prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights is Vegas Golden Knights to win, with a 64% chance. We project Toronto Maple Leafs 3.0 and Vegas Golden Knights 3.8. Our best bet is Over 5 goals at -402.

What is the projected score for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights?

We project Toronto Maple Leafs 3.0 and Vegas Golden Knights 3.8, about 6.9 goals in total.

How are Vegas Golden Knights playing?

Vegas Golden Knights have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 66 goals scored and 55 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Toronto Maple Leafs playing?

Toronto Maple Leafs have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 58 goals scored and 77 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 8 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Vegas Golden Knights and Toronto Maple Leafs last met?

It ended Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Vegas Golden Knights 6. In the last 2 meetings Vegas Golden Knights won 2 and Toronto Maple Leafs won 0.

What is the best bet for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vegas Golden Knights?

Over 5 goals at -402, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Golden Knights against Maple Leafs. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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