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Predictions › France › Toulouse vs Troyes
Ligue 1Sat 24 Oct, 15:15 France time

Toulouse vs Troyes prediction

Stadium Municipal de Toulouse

ToulouseHome
1.87 : 1.09
expected goals
TroyesAway
55%Toulouse
24%Draw
21%Troyes
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Toulouse vs Troyes is Toulouse to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Toulouse to win
Chance
55%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Toulouse 1.9, Troyes 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Toulouse to win and Over 2.5
36% chanceFair price 2.761 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Toulouse 55%, the draw 24% and Troyes 21%. The bookmakers agree and make Toulouse the favourite at 1.67.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Toulouse took 6 points from their last 5 games and Troyes took 3 from 5. Toulouse come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Toulouse won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Troyes won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Toulouse score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.7. Troyes score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Toulouse games and 11 of Troyes games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Troyesrecent form-3%
  • Troyesrest between games-2%
Toulouse form D W D L DTroyes form D L L L WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Toulouse vs Troyes: Toulouse are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Toulouse host Troyes in the Ligue 1 on Sat 24 Oct, 15:15 at Stadium Municipal de Toulouse. Our prediction for Toulouse vs Troyes is Toulouse to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Toulouse form

Toulouse have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, D, newest first.

Troyes form

Troyes have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Toulouse to score about 1.9 goals and Troyes about 1.1. That points to Toulouse to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Toulouse to win and Over 2.5 at 2.76.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ToulouseTroyes
Games played2020
Wins59
Draws63
Losses98
Goals scored2531
Goals conceded3428
Scored per game1.31.6
Conceded per game1.71.4
Home record3W 3D 4L5W 1D 3L
Away record2W 3D 5L4W 2D 5L
Clean sheets10%30%
Both teams scored60%45%
Over 2.5 goals60%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Toulouse to win52%1.941.67-14.0%
A Draw22%4.464.00-10.3%
Troyes to win20%4.944.50-8.9%
Over 2.5 goals54%1.861.59-14.4%
Under 2.5 goals42%2.392.25-5.7%
Toulouse -0.552%1.911.61-15.8%
Troyes +0.543%2.312.10-8.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals57%1.76
Over 3.5 goals35%2.90
Both teams to score57%1.76
Toulouse or Draw79%1.27
Troyes or Draw45%2.22
Toulouse to win and Over 2.537%2.71
Troyes to win and Over 2.513%7.57
Toulouse clean sheet34%2.98
Troyes clean sheet15%6.51

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.2%
2-19.9%
2-09.0%
1-09.0%
3-16.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Toulouse vs Troyes?

Our prediction for Toulouse vs Troyes is Toulouse to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Toulouse vs Troyes?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Toulouse to score 1.9 goals and Troyes 1.1.

Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Troyes?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Toulouse last 20 games and 9 of Troyes last 20.

How are Toulouse playing?

Toulouse have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Troyes playing?

Troyes have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Toulouse vs Troyes?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Toulouse against Troyes. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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