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Predictions › United States › Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars
College FootballSat 14 Nov, 19:00 United States time

Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars prediction

Hancock Whitney Stadium

Troy TrojansAway
23.0 : 29.6
projected points
South Alabama JaguarsHome
35%Troy
65%South Alabama
Eagle safe pickSouth Alabama +3.5
-301

Quick answer

Our prediction for Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars is South Alabama Jaguars to win, with a 65% chance. We project Troy Trojans 23.0 and South Alabama Jaguars 29.6. Our best bet is South Alabama +3.5 at -301.

Prediction
South Alabama Jaguars to win
Chance
65%
Projected score
Troy Trojans 23, South Alabama Jaguars 30
Projected total
52.6 points
Best bet
South Alabama +3.5 at -301

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

South Alabama +3.5
75% chanceFair price -3012 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Troy to win
33% chanceFair price +2021 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives South Alabama Jaguars 65% and Troy Trojans 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    South Alabama Jaguars won 2 of their last 5 and Troy Trojans won 2 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    South Alabama Jaguars won 4 of their last 8 games at home. Troy Trojans won 5 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    South Alabama Jaguars score 28.6 points a game and let in 31.8. Troy Trojans score 22.9 and let in 24.1. Their recent games average 60.4 and 47.1 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, South Alabama Jaguars won 0 and Troy Trojans won 1. The last one ended Troy Trojans 31, South Alabama Jaguars 24.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    South Alabama +3.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars: South Alabama Jaguars are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

South Alabama Jaguars host Troy Trojans in the College Football on Sat 14 Nov, 19:00 at Hancock Whitney Stadium. Our prediction for Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars is South Alabama Jaguars to win, with a 65% chance. We project Troy Trojans 23.0 and South Alabama Jaguars 29.6. Our best bet is South Alabama +3.5 at -301.

South Alabama Jaguars form

South Alabama Jaguars have 7 wins and 11 losses in their last 18 games, with 515 points scored and 573 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Troy Trojans form

Troy Trojans have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 459 points scored and 483 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. South Alabama Jaguars won 0, Troy Trojans won 1. Last time out it finished Troy Trojans 31, South Alabama Jaguars 24.

Our call

We expect Troy Trojans to score about 23.0 points and South Alabama Jaguars about 29.6. That points to South Alabama Jaguars to win. Our safest bet is South Alabama +3.5 at -301. Our bold bet is Troy to win at +202.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

South AlabamaTroy
Games played1820
Wins711
Losses119
Points scored515459
Points conceded573483
Scored per game28.622.9
Conceded per game31.824.1
Home record4W 4L6W 3L
Away record3W 7L5W 6L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

South Alabama spreadCoversFair
South Alabama -13.533%+199
South Alabama -9.543%+133
South Alabama -6.550%-102
South Alabama -3.558%-137
South Alabama +0.567%-206
Total pointsOverUnder
45.567%33%
49.558%42%
52.550%50%
55.543%57%
59.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. South Alabama +3.5 wins if South Alabama win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars?

Our prediction for Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars is South Alabama Jaguars to win, with a 65% chance. We project Troy Trojans 23.0 and South Alabama Jaguars 29.6. Our best bet is South Alabama +3.5 at -301.

What is the projected score for Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars?

We project Troy Trojans 23.0 and South Alabama Jaguars 29.6, about 52.6 points in total.

How are South Alabama Jaguars playing?

South Alabama Jaguars have 7 wins and 11 losses in their last 18 games, with 515 points scored and 573 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Troy Trojans playing?

Troy Trojans have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 459 points scored and 483 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when South Alabama Jaguars and Troy Trojans last met?

It ended Troy Trojans 31, South Alabama Jaguars 24. In the last 1 meeting South Alabama Jaguars won 0 and Troy Trojans won 1.

What is the best bet for Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars?

South Alabama +3.5 at -301, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in South Alabama against Troy. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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