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Predictions › France › Troyes vs Le Havre AC
Ligue 1Fri 20 Nov, 19:45 France time

Troyes vs Le Havre AC prediction

Stade de l'Aube

TroyesHome
1.57 : 1.21
expected goals
Le Havre ACAway
45%Troyes
26%Draw
29%Le Havre AC
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Troyes vs Le Havre AC is Troyes to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
Troyes to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Troyes 1.6, Le Havre AC 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Le Havre AC to win
28% chancePrice 3.501 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Troyes 45%, the draw 26% and Le Havre AC 29%. The bookmakers agree and make Troyes the favourite at 2.00.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Troyes took 4 points from their last 5 games and Le Havre AC took 0 from 5. Troyes come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Troyes won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Le Havre AC won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Troyes score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.3. Le Havre AC score 1.1 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Troyes games and 7 of Le Havre AC games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Troyesrecent form-1%
  • Le Havre ACrecent form-7%
  • Le Havre ACrest between games-2%
Troyes form D W D L LLe Havre AC form L L L L LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Troyes vs Le Havre AC: Troyes shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Troyes host Le Havre AC in the Ligue 1 on Fri 20 Nov, 19:45 at Stade de l'Aube. Our prediction for Troyes vs Le Havre AC is Troyes to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Troyes form

Troyes have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Le Havre AC form

Le Havre AC have 1 win, 8 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Troyes to score about 1.6 goals and Le Havre AC about 1.2. That points to Troyes to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Le Havre AC to win at 3.50.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

TroyesLe Havre AC
Games played2020
Wins91
Draws38
Losses811
Goals scored2921
Goals conceded2536
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game1.31.8
Home record5W 1D 3L0W 4D 6L
Away record4W 2D 5L1W 4D 5L
Clean sheets35%15%
Both teams scored40%60%
Over 2.5 goals50%35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Troyes to win43%2.342.00-14.4%
A Draw26%3.883.50-9.8%
Le Havre AC to win28%3.533.50-0.9%
Over 2.5 goals48%2.081.77-14.8%
Under 2.5 goals45%2.221.91-14.2%
Troyes -0.544%2.271.91-16.0%
Le Havre AC +0.549%2.041.71-15.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.90
Over 3.5 goals31%3.28
Both teams to score56%1.77
Troyes or Draw71%1.40
Le Havre AC or Draw55%1.82
Troyes to win and Over 2.528%3.53
Le Havre AC to win and Over 2.517%5.74
Troyes clean sheet30%3.37
Le Havre AC clean sheet21%4.82

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
2-19.3%
1-09.0%
2-07.6%
1-27.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Troyes vs Le Havre AC?

Our prediction for Troyes vs Le Havre AC is Troyes to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Troyes vs Le Havre AC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Troyes to score 1.6 goals and Le Havre AC 1.2.

Will both teams score in Troyes vs Le Havre AC?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Troyes last 20 games and 12 of Le Havre AC last 20.

How are Troyes playing?

Troyes have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Le Havre AC playing?

Le Havre AC have 1 win, 8 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Troyes vs Le Havre AC?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Troyes against Le Havre AC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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