Predictions › France › Troyes vs Le Mans

Ligue 1Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 France time

Troyes vs Le Mans prediction

Stade de l'Aube

TroyesHome

1.53 : 1.31

expected goals

Le MansAway

42%Troyes

26%Draw

32%Le Mans

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Troyes vs Le Mans is Troyes to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction: Troyes to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Troyes 1.5, Le Mans 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Le Mans to win

31% chancePrice 3.251 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Troyes 42%, the draw 26% and Le Mans 32%. The bookmakers agree and make Troyes the favourite at 2.10.
2
Recent form
Troyes took 0 points from their last 5 games and Le Mans took 5 from 5. Le Mans come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Troyes won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Le Mans won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Troyes score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Le Mans score 1.7 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Troyes games and 11 of Le Mans games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Troyes won 0 and Le Mans won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Troyes 0, Le Mans 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Troyesrecent form-6%

Troyes form D L L L LLe Mans form D L W D DHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Troyes vs Le Mans: Troyes shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Troyes host Le Mans in the Ligue 1 on Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 at Stade de l'Aube. Our prediction for Troyes vs Le Mans is Troyes to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Troyes form

Troyes have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Le Mans form

Le Mans have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Troyes won 0, Le Mans won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Troyes 0, Le Mans 2.

Our call

We expect Troyes to score about 1.5 goals and Le Mans about 1.3. That points to Troyes to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Le Mans to win at 3.25.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Troyes	Le Mans
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	7
Draws	3	9
Losses	8	4
Goals scored	32	34
Goals conceded	29	28
Scored per game	1.6	1.7
Conceded per game	1.4	1.4
Home record	5W 1D 3L	4W 5D 1L
Away record	4W 2D 5L	3W 4D 3L
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Troyes to win	43%	2.34	2.10	-10.4%
A Draw	25%	3.95	3.45	-12.7%
Le Mans to win	31%	3.26	3.25	-0.2%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.01	1.77	-12.0%
Under 2.5 goals	46%	2.17	1.95	-10.1%
Troyes -0.5	44%	2.27	2.00	-11.7%
Le Mans +0.5	52%	1.94	1.65	-15.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.86
Over 3.5 goals	32%	3.17
Both teams to score	58%	1.73
Troyes or Draw	68%	1.47
Le Mans or Draw	58%	1.72
Troyes to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.74
Le Mans to win and Over 2.5	20%	5.04
Troyes clean sheet	27%	3.69
Le Mans clean sheet	22%	4.61

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.4%

2-19.0%

1-08.3%

1-27.7%

0-17.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Troyes vs Le Mans?

Our prediction for Troyes vs Le Mans is Troyes to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Troyes vs Le Mans?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Troyes to score 1.5 goals and Le Mans 1.3.

Will both teams score in Troyes vs Le Mans?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Troyes last 20 games and 13 of Le Mans last 20.

How are Troyes playing?

How are Le Mans playing?

What happened when Troyes and Le Mans last met?

It ended Troyes 0, Le Mans 2. In the last 2 meetings Troyes won 0 and Le Mans won 1.

What is the best bet for Troyes vs Le Mans?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Troyes against Le Mans. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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