Predictions › France › Troyes vs Lens

Ligue 1Sat 17 Oct, 18:45 France time

Troyes vs Lens prediction

Stade de l'Aube

TroyesHome

1.23 : 1.90

expected goals

LensAway

24%Troyes

24%Draw

52%Lens

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Troyes vs Lens is Lens to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: Lens to win
Chance: 52%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Troyes 1.2, Lens 1.9
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lens to win and Over 2.5

35% chanceFair price 2.851 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Troyes 24%, the draw 24% and Lens 52%. The bookmakers agree and make Lens the favourite at 1.80.
2
Recent form
Troyes took 4 points from their last 5 games and Lens took 4 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Troyes won 5 of their last 8 games at home. Lens won 3 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Troyes score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Lens score 2.2 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Troyes games and 15 of Lens games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Troyesrecent form-3%
Lensrecent form-3%

Troyes form L L L W DLens form L D W L LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Troyes vs Lens: Lens are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Troyes host Lens in the Ligue 1 on Sat 17 Oct, 18:45 at Stade de l'Aube. Our prediction for Troyes vs Lens is Lens to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Troyes form

Troyes have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Lens form

Lens have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Troyes to score about 1.2 goals and Lens about 1.9. That points to Lens to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Lens to win and Over 2.5 at 2.85.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Troyes	Lens
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	9
Draws	3	4
Losses	8	7
Goals scored	31	44
Goals conceded	27	30
Scored per game	1.6	2.2
Conceded per game	1.4	1.5
Home record	5W 1D 2L	6W 0D 3L
Away record	4W 2D 6L	3W 4D 4L
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Both teams scored	45%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Troyes to win	24%	4.22	3.90	-7.6%
A Draw	23%	4.30	3.90	-9.3%
Lens to win	49%	2.04	1.80	-12.0%
Over 2.5 goals	56%	1.77	1.54	-13.0%
Under 2.5 goals	37%	2.67	2.30	-14.0%
Troyes +0.5	44%	2.26	1.91	-15.6%
Lens -0.5	49%	2.04	1.71	-15.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	83%	1.21
Over 2.5 goals	61%	1.65
Over 3.5 goals	38%	2.61
Both teams to score	61%	1.64
Troyes or Draw	48%	2.10
Lens or Draw	76%	1.32
Troyes to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.27
Lens to win and Over 2.5	37%	2.71
Troyes clean sheet	15%	6.70
Lens clean sheet	29%	3.43

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.8%

1-29.7%

0-27.9%

0-17.7%

2-16.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Troyes vs Lens?

Our prediction for Troyes vs Lens is Lens to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Troyes vs Lens?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-2. We expect Troyes to score 1.2 goals and Lens 1.9.

Will both teams score in Troyes vs Lens?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Troyes last 20 games and 13 of Lens last 20.

How are Troyes playing?

How are Lens playing?

What is the best bet for Troyes vs Lens?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Troyes against Lens. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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