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Predictions › France › Troyes vs Marseille
Ligue 1Sun 11 Oct, 18:45 France time

Troyes vs Marseille prediction

Stade de l'Aube

TroyesHome
1.24 : 1.79
expected goals
MarseilleAway
26%Troyes
25%Draw
50%Marseille
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Troyes vs Marseille is Marseille to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction
Marseille to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Troyes 1.2, Marseille 1.8
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.272 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Marseille to win and Over 2.5
32% chanceFair price 3.081 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Troyes 26%, the draw 25% and Marseille 50%. The bookmakers agree and make Marseille the favourite at 1.83.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Troyes took 4 points from their last 5 games and Marseille took 0 from 5. Troyes come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Troyes won 5 of their last 8 games at home. Marseille won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Troyes score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Marseille score 1.3 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Troyes games and 12 of Marseille games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Troyesrecent form-3%
  • Marseillerecent form-7%
Troyes form L L L W DMarseille form L L L L LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Troyes vs Marseille: Marseille are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Troyes host Marseille in the Ligue 1 on Sun 11 Oct, 18:45 at Stade de l'Aube. Our prediction for Troyes vs Marseille is Marseille to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Troyes form

Troyes have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Marseille form

Marseille have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Troyes to score about 1.2 goals and Marseille about 1.8. That points to Marseille to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Marseille to win and Over 2.5 at 3.08.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

TroyesMarseille
Games played2020
Wins97
Draws32
Losses811
Goals scored3125
Goals conceded2735
Scored per game1.61.3
Conceded per game1.41.8
Home record5W 1D 2L5W 2D 3L
Away record4W 2D 6L2W 0D 8L
Clean sheets30%20%
Both teams scored45%50%
Over 2.5 goals55%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Troyes to win25%3.963.85-2.8%
A Draw24%4.163.80-8.8%
Marseille to win47%2.141.83-14.4%
Over 2.5 goals55%1.811.57-13.1%
Under 2.5 goals39%2.582.25-12.8%
Troyes +0.546%2.181.87-14.1%
Marseille -0.548%2.081.74-16.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.23
Over 2.5 goals58%1.72
Over 3.5 goals36%2.79
Both teams to score60%1.67
Troyes or Draw50%1.99
Marseille or Draw74%1.35
Troyes to win and Over 2.517%5.97
Marseille to win and Over 2.534%2.96
Troyes clean sheet17%5.97
Marseille clean sheet29%3.44

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.4%
1-29.6%
0-18.0%
0-27.8%
2-16.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Troyes vs Marseille?

Our prediction for Troyes vs Marseille is Marseille to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Troyes vs Marseille?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Troyes to score 1.2 goals and Marseille 1.8.

Will both teams score in Troyes vs Marseille?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Troyes last 20 games and 10 of Marseille last 20.

How are Troyes playing?

Troyes have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Marseille playing?

Marseille have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Troyes vs Marseille?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Troyes against Marseille. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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