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Predictions › Germany › TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
BundesligaSun 25 Oct, 14:30 Germany time

TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction

PreZero Arena

TSG HoffenheimHome
1.66 : 1.78
expected goals
Bayer LeverkusenAway
36%Hoffenheim
24%Draw
41%Leverkusen
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction
Bayer Leverkusen to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
TSG Hoffenheim 1.7, Bayer Leverkusen 1.8
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score
68%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.531 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives TSG Hoffenheim 36%, the draw 24% and Bayer Leverkusen 41%. The bookmakers agree and make Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 2.25.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    TSG Hoffenheim took 3 points from their last 5 games and Bayer Leverkusen took 13 from 5. Bayer Leverkusen come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    TSG Hoffenheim won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Bayer Leverkusen won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    TSG Hoffenheim score 1.6 goals a game and let in 2.2. Bayer Leverkusen score 2.1 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of TSG Hoffenheim games and 11 of Bayer Leverkusen games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, TSG Hoffenheim won 1 and Bayer Leverkusen won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended TSG Hoffenheim 1, Bayer Leverkusen 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Hoffenheimrecent form-3%
  • Leverkusenrecent form+6%
Hoffenheim form D L L W LLeverkusen form W W W D WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen: Bayer Leverkusen shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

TSG Hoffenheim host Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on Sun 25 Oct, 14:30 at PreZero Arena. Our prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

TSG Hoffenheim form

TSG Hoffenheim have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 44 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Bayer Leverkusen form

Bayer Leverkusen have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. TSG Hoffenheim won 1, Bayer Leverkusen won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished TSG Hoffenheim 1, Bayer Leverkusen 0.

Our call

We expect TSG Hoffenheim to score about 1.7 goals and Bayer Leverkusen about 1.8. That points to Bayer Leverkusen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.5 at 3.53.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HoffenheimLeverkusen
Games played2020
Wins69
Draws47
Losses104
Goals scored3142
Goals conceded4430
Scored per game1.62.1
Conceded per game2.21.5
Home record4W 2D 4L5W 4D 1L
Away record2W 2D 6L4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets10%25%
Both teams scored70%70%
Over 2.5 goals80%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
TSG Hoffenheim to win35%2.882.55-11.4%
A Draw22%4.513.70-18.0%
Bayer Leverkusen to win41%2.412.25-6.7%
Over 3.5 goals46%2.151.91-11.4%
Under 3.5 goals50%2.001.80-9.8%
TSG Hoffenheim +0.555%1.831.56-15.0%
Bayer Leverkusen -0.542%2.392.20-7.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals86%1.16
Over 2.5 goals67%1.50
Over 3.5 goals45%2.22
Both teams to score68%1.47
TSG Hoffenheim or Draw59%1.69
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw64%1.55
TSG Hoffenheim to win and Over 2.526%3.78
Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.531%3.27
TSG Hoffenheim clean sheet17%5.94
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet19%5.24

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.0%
1-28.4%
2-17.9%
2-27.0%
0-15.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Real Madrid Eye Bayer Leverkusen Star Jarell Quansah

Real Madrid are tracking former Liverpool defender Jarell Quansah ahead of next summer, while several Premier League clubs eye Jules Kounde.

1 Oct 2026
Premier League

Is Liverpool Giving Up on Florian Wirtz Too Soon?

Florian Wirtz has struggled to match his Leverkusen form at Liverpool, but stats show why the club made a record investment.

22 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Our prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect TSG Hoffenheim to score 1.7 goals and Bayer Leverkusen 1.8.

Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Both teams to score has a 68% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of TSG Hoffenheim last 20 games and 14 of Bayer Leverkusen last 20.

How are TSG Hoffenheim playing?

TSG Hoffenheim have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 44 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Bayer Leverkusen playing?

Bayer Leverkusen have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

What happened when TSG Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen last met?

It ended TSG Hoffenheim 1, Bayer Leverkusen 0. In the last 1 meeting TSG Hoffenheim won 1 and Bayer Leverkusen won 0.

What is the best bet for TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Hoffenheim against Leverkusen. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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