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Predictions › Europa League › TSG Hoffenheim vs Besiktas
Europa LeagueThu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC

TSG Hoffenheim vs Besiktas prediction

PreZero Arena

TSG HoffenheimHome
1.78 : 1.50
expected goals
BesiktasAway
44%Hoffenheim
24%Draw
32%Besiktas
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Besiktas is TSG Hoffenheim to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
TSG Hoffenheim to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
TSG Hoffenheim 1.8, Besiktas 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Besiktas to win
31% chancePrice 3.30+3.6% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives TSG Hoffenheim 44%, the draw 24% and Besiktas 32%. The bookmakers agree and make TSG Hoffenheim the favourite at 1.95.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    TSG Hoffenheim took 3 points from their last 5 games and Besiktas took 12 from 5. Besiktas come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    TSG Hoffenheim won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Besiktas won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    TSG Hoffenheim score 1.6 goals a game and let in 2.1. Besiktas score 2.0 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of TSG Hoffenheim games and 12 of Besiktas games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Hoffenheimrecent form-4%
  • Besiktasrecent form+4%
Hoffenheim form L L W L LBesiktas form L W W W WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

TSG Hoffenheim vs Besiktas: TSG Hoffenheim shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

TSG Hoffenheim host Besiktas in the Europa League on Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 at PreZero Arena. Our prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Besiktas is TSG Hoffenheim to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

TSG Hoffenheim form

TSG Hoffenheim have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Besiktas form

Besiktas have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect TSG Hoffenheim to score about 1.8 goals and Besiktas about 1.5. That points to TSG Hoffenheim to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Besiktas to win at 3.30.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HoffenheimBesiktas
Games played2020
Wins712
Draws42
Losses96
Goals scored3240
Goals conceded4221
Scored per game1.62.0
Conceded per game2.11.1
Home record5W 2D 3L7W 1D 2L
Away record2W 2D 6L5W 1D 4L
Clean sheets10%35%
Both teams scored70%50%
Over 2.5 goals80%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
TSG Hoffenheim to win41%2.431.95-19.7%
A Draw24%4.213.95-6.2%
Besiktas to win31%3.183.30+3.6%
Over 3.5 goals41%2.452.10-14.4%
Under 3.5 goals54%1.861.67-10.4%
TSG Hoffenheim -0.545%2.231.83-17.9%
Besiktas +0.550%2.011.77-12.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%1.18
Over 2.5 goals64%1.57
Over 3.5 goals41%2.41
Both teams to score65%1.54
TSG Hoffenheim or Draw68%1.47
Besiktas or Draw56%1.78
TSG Hoffenheim to win and Over 2.532%3.15
Besiktas to win and Over 2.523%4.39
TSG Hoffenheim clean sheet22%4.48
Besiktas clean sheet17%5.91

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.7%
2-18.9%
1-27.5%
2-26.7%
1-06.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Besiktas?

Our prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Besiktas is TSG Hoffenheim to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Besiktas?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect TSG Hoffenheim to score 1.8 goals and Besiktas 1.5.

Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim vs Besiktas?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of TSG Hoffenheim last 20 games and 10 of Besiktas last 20.

How are TSG Hoffenheim playing?

TSG Hoffenheim have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Besiktas playing?

Besiktas have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for TSG Hoffenheim vs Besiktas?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Hoffenheim against Besiktas. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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