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Predictions › Germany › TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV
BundesligaSat 10 Oct, 13:30 Germany time

TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV prediction

PreZero Arena

TSG HoffenheimHome
2.20 : 0.96
expected goals
Hamburg SVAway
65%Hoffenheim
20%Draw
15%Hamburg
Eagle safe pickTSG Hoffenheim or Draw
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV is TSG Hoffenheim to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is TSG Hoffenheim or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction
TSG Hoffenheim to win
Chance
65%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
TSG Hoffenheim 2.2, Hamburg SV 1.0
Best bet
TSG Hoffenheim or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

TSG Hoffenheim or Draw
83% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

TSG Hoffenheim to win and Over 2.5
43% chanceFair price 2.331 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives TSG Hoffenheim 65%, the draw 20% and Hamburg SV 15%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    TSG Hoffenheim took 3 points from their last 5 games and Hamburg SV took 4 from 5. Hamburg SV come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    TSG Hoffenheim won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Hamburg SV won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    TSG Hoffenheim score 1.6 goals a game and let in 2.1. Hamburg SV score 1.3 and let in 2.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of TSG Hoffenheim games and 13 of Hamburg SV games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, TSG Hoffenheim won 2 and Hamburg SV won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Hamburg SV 1, TSG Hoffenheim 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    TSG Hoffenheim or Draw has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Hoffenheimrecent form-4%
  • Hamburgrecent form-1%
Hoffenheim form L L W L LHamburg form W L L L WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV: TSG Hoffenheim are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

TSG Hoffenheim host Hamburg SV in the Bundesliga on Sat 10 Oct, 13:30 at PreZero Arena. Our prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV is TSG Hoffenheim to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is TSG Hoffenheim or Draw at 1.21.

TSG Hoffenheim form

TSG Hoffenheim have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Hamburg SV form

Hamburg SV have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 40 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. TSG Hoffenheim won 2, Hamburg SV won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Hamburg SV 1, TSG Hoffenheim 2.

Our call

We expect TSG Hoffenheim to score about 2.2 goals and Hamburg SV about 1.0. That points to TSG Hoffenheim to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is TSG Hoffenheim or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is TSG Hoffenheim to win and Over 2.5 at 2.33.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HoffenheimHamburg
Games played2020
Wins76
Draws45
Losses99
Goals scored3225
Goals conceded4240
Scored per game1.61.3
Conceded per game2.12.0
Home record5W 2D 3L3W 3D 4L
Away record2W 2D 6L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets10%5%
Both teams scored70%70%
Over 2.5 goals80%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.21
Over 2.5 goals61%1.64
Over 3.5 goals39%2.58
Both teams to score55%1.80
TSG Hoffenheim or Draw85%1.17
Hamburg SV or Draw35%2.85
TSG Hoffenheim to win and Over 2.546%2.18
Hamburg SV to win and Over 2.59%10.79
TSG Hoffenheim clean sheet38%2.62
Hamburg SV clean sheet11%8.99

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-010.3%
2-19.9%
1-19.5%
1-08.8%
3-07.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV?

Our prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV is TSG Hoffenheim to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is TSG Hoffenheim or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-1. We expect TSG Hoffenheim to score 2.2 goals and Hamburg SV 1.0.

Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of TSG Hoffenheim last 20 games and 14 of Hamburg SV last 20.

How are TSG Hoffenheim playing?

TSG Hoffenheim have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Hamburg SV playing?

Hamburg SV have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 40 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, D, newest first.

What happened when TSG Hoffenheim and Hamburg SV last met?

It ended Hamburg SV 1, TSG Hoffenheim 2. In the last 2 meetings TSG Hoffenheim won 2 and Hamburg SV won 0.

What is the best bet for TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV?

TSG Hoffenheim or Draw at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Hoffenheim against Hamburg. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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