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Predictions › Germany › TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04
BundesligaSun 8 Nov, 18:30 Germany time

TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 prediction

PreZero Arena

TSG HoffenheimHome
2.14 : 1.23
expected goals
Schalke 04Away
58%Hoffenheim
22%Draw
21%Schalke
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 is TSG Hoffenheim to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction
TSG Hoffenheim to win
Chance
58%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
TSG Hoffenheim 2.1, Schalke 04 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score
63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
86% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

TSG Hoffenheim to win and Over 2.5
42% chanceFair price 2.381 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives TSG Hoffenheim 58%, the draw 22% and Schalke 04 21%. The bookmakers agree and make TSG Hoffenheim the favourite at 1.59.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    TSG Hoffenheim took 9 points from their last 5 games and Schalke 04 took 5 from 5. TSG Hoffenheim come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    TSG Hoffenheim won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Schalke 04 won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    TSG Hoffenheim score 1.8 goals a game and let in 2.0. Schalke 04 score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 17 of TSG Hoffenheim games and 10 of Schalke 04 games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Hoffenheimrecent form+3%
  • Schalkerecent form-3%
Hoffenheim form D W W W LSchalke form D D L L DHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04: TSG Hoffenheim are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

TSG Hoffenheim host Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga on Sun 8 Nov, 18:30 at PreZero Arena. Our prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 is TSG Hoffenheim to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

TSG Hoffenheim form

TSG Hoffenheim have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Schalke 04 form

Schalke 04 have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect TSG Hoffenheim to score about 2.1 goals and Schalke 04 about 1.2. That points to TSG Hoffenheim to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is TSG Hoffenheim to win and Over 2.5 at 2.38.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HoffenheimSchalke
Games played2020
Wins810
Draws36
Losses94
Goals scored3528
Goals conceded4022
Scored per game1.81.4
Conceded per game2.01.1
Home record5W 2D 4L6W 3D 1L
Away record3W 1D 5L4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets15%35%
Both teams scored70%50%
Over 2.5 goals85%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
TSG Hoffenheim to win52%1.911.59-16.9%
A Draw21%4.654.20-9.7%
Schalke 04 to win21%4.824.30-10.9%
Over 3.5 goals43%2.352.10-10.7%
Under 3.5 goals51%1.951.65-15.6%
TSG Hoffenheim -0.552%1.911.57-17.7%
Schalke 04 +0.541%2.412.15-10.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals86%1.17
Over 2.5 goals65%1.53
Over 3.5 goals44%2.30
Both teams to score63%1.59
TSG Hoffenheim or Draw79%1.26
Schalke 04 or Draw42%2.36
TSG Hoffenheim to win and Over 2.543%2.33
Schalke 04 to win and Over 2.514%6.90
TSG Hoffenheim clean sheet29%3.42
Schalke 04 clean sheet12%8.50

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.7%
1-19.6%
2-07.9%
3-16.9%
1-06.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04?

Our prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 is TSG Hoffenheim to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect TSG Hoffenheim to score 2.1 goals and Schalke 04 1.2.

Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of TSG Hoffenheim last 20 games and 10 of Schalke 04 last 20.

How are TSG Hoffenheim playing?

TSG Hoffenheim have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Schalke 04 playing?

Schalke 04 have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.17, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Hoffenheim against Schalke. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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