Predictions › Italy › Udinese vs Lecce

Serie ASun 18 Oct, 10:30 Italy time

Udinese vs Lecce prediction

Stadio Friuli

UdineseHome

1.38 : 0.97

expected goals

LecceAway

46%Udinese

29%Draw

26%Lecce

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Udinese vs Lecce is Udinese to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Udinese to win
Chance: 46%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Udinese 1.4, Lecce 1.0
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.391 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Udinese 46%, the draw 29% and Lecce 26%. The bookmakers agree and make Udinese the favourite at 1.83.
2
Recent form
Udinese took 4 points from their last 5 games and Lecce took 6 from 5. Lecce come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Udinese won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Lecce won 4 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Udinese score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.3. Lecce score 1.0 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Udinese games and 10 of Lecce games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Udinese won 1 and Lecce won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Lecce 2, Udinese 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Udineserecent form-1%
Leccerecent form-1%

Udinese form L L L W WLecce form L W L L WHome edge in this league 11% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Udinese vs Lecce: Udinese are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Udinese host Lecce in the Serie A on Sun 18 Oct, 10:30 at Stadio Friuli. Our prediction for Udinese vs Lecce is Udinese to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Udinese form

Udinese have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Lecce form

Lecce have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Udinese won 1, Lecce won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Lecce 2, Udinese 1.

Our call

We expect Udinese to score about 1.4 goals and Lecce about 1.0. That points to Udinese to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.39.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Udinese	Lecce
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	8
Draws	4	2
Losses	10	10
Goals scored	27	20
Goals conceded	25	30
Scored per game	1.4	1.0
Conceded per game	1.3	1.5
Home record	2W 2D 6L	4W 1D 4L
Away record	4W 2D 4L	4W 1D 6L
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Udinese to win	43%	2.35	1.83	-21.9%
A Draw	28%	3.53	3.40	-3.7%
Lecce to win	25%	3.99	3.80	-4.7%
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.31	1.91	-17.3%
Under 2.5 goals	50%	2.00	1.80	-10.1%
Udinese -0.5	46%	2.17	1.77	-18.6%
Lecce +0.5	47%	2.12	1.83	-13.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	69%	1.45
Over 2.5 goals	42%	2.40
Over 3.5 goals	21%	4.75
Both teams to score	47%	2.12
Udinese or Draw	74%	1.34
Lecce or Draw	54%	1.84
Udinese to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.14
Lecce to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.94
Udinese clean sheet	38%	2.63
Lecce clean sheet	25%	3.98

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%

1-012.4%

0-010.3%

2-09.1%

2-18.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Serie A

Udinese Secure Signing of Champion Defender David Alaba

Former Real Madrid and Bayern Munich defender David Alaba has officially signed with Serie A side Udinese as a free agent.

24 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Udinese vs Lecce?

Our prediction for Udinese vs Lecce is Udinese to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Udinese vs Lecce?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Udinese to score 1.4 goals and Lecce 1.0.

Will both teams score in Udinese vs Lecce?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Udinese last 20 games and 8 of Lecce last 20.

How are Udinese playing?

How are Lecce playing?

What happened when Udinese and Lecce last met?

It ended Lecce 2, Udinese 1. In the last 2 meetings Udinese won 1 and Lecce won 1.

What is the best bet for Udinese vs Lecce?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Udinese against Lecce. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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