Predictions › Chile › Unión La Calera vs Deportes Limache

Chilean Primera DivisionMon 14 Sept, 23:30 Chile time

Unión La Calera vs Deportes Limache prediction

Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán

Unión La CaleraHome

1.41 : 1.48

expected goals

Deportes LimacheAway

36%Unión La Calera

26%Draw

38%Limache

Eagle safe pickDeportes Limache +0.5

1.51

Quick answer

Our prediction for Unión La Calera vs Deportes Limache is Deportes Limache to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Deportes Limache +0.5 at 1.51.

Prediction: Deportes Limache to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Unión La Calera 1.4, Deportes Limache 1.5
Best bet: Deportes Limache +0.5 at 1.51
Both teams to score: 59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Deportes Limache +0.5

63% chancePrice 1.511 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Deportes Limache to win

35% chancePrice 2.801 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Unión La Calera 36%, the draw 26% and Deportes Limache 38%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Unión La Calera the favourite at 2.40, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
Unión La Calera took 1 point from their last 5 games and Deportes Limache took 9 from 5. Deportes Limache come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Unión La Calera won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Deportes Limache won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Unión La Calera score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.7. Deportes Limache score 1.9 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Unión La Calera games and 16 of Deportes Limache games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Unión La Calera won 0 and Deportes Limache won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Deportes Limache 4, Unión La Calera 0.
6
The safest bet
Deportes Limache +0.5 has a 63% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Unión La Calerarecent form-6%
Limacherecent form+1%

Unión La Calera form L L D L LLimache form W W L W LHome edge in this league 29% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Unión La Calera vs Deportes Limache: Deportes Limache shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Unión La Calera host Deportes Limache in the Chilean Primera Division on Mon 14 Sept, 23:30 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán. Our prediction for Unión La Calera vs Deportes Limache is Deportes Limache to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Deportes Limache +0.5 at 1.51.

Unión La Calera form

Unión La Calera have 3 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Deportes Limache form

Deportes Limache have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Unión La Calera won 0, Deportes Limache won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Deportes Limache 4, Unión La Calera 0.

Our call

We expect Unión La Calera to score about 1.4 goals and Deportes Limache about 1.5. That points to Deportes Limache to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Deportes Limache +0.5 at 1.51. Our bold bet is Deportes Limache to win at 2.80.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Unión La Calera	Limache
Games played	20	20
Wins	3	9
Draws	5	2
Losses	12	9
Goals scored	18	39
Goals conceded	34	32
Scored per game	0.9	1.9
Conceded per game	1.7	1.6
Home record	2W 3D 5L	6W 0D 4L
Away record	1W 2D 7L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Unión La Calera to win	33%	3.03	2.40	-20.9%
A Draw	25%	4.05	3.35	-17.3%
Deportes Limache to win	35%	2.84	2.80	-1.4%
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.91	1.77	-7.4%
Under 2.5 goals	45%	2.21	1.91	-13.7%
Unión La Calera -0.5	35%	2.83	2.30	-18.7%
Deportes Limache +0.5	63%	1.60	1.51	-5.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.26
Over 2.5 goals	55%	1.81
Over 3.5 goals	33%	3.05
Both teams to score	59%	1.69
Unión La Calera or Draw	62%	1.62
Deportes Limache or Draw	64%	1.55
Unión La Calera to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.38
Deportes Limache to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.05
Unión La Calera clean sheet	23%	4.37
Deportes Limache clean sheet	24%	4.12

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%

1-28.6%

2-18.2%

0-17.5%

1-07.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Unión La Calera vs Deportes Limache?

What is the score prediction for Unión La Calera vs Deportes Limache?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Unión La Calera to score 1.4 goals and Deportes Limache 1.5.

Will both teams score in Unión La Calera vs Deportes Limache?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Unión La Calera last 20 games and 11 of Deportes Limache last 20.

How are Unión La Calera playing?

How are Deportes Limache playing?

What happened when Unión La Calera and Deportes Limache last met?

It ended Deportes Limache 4, Unión La Calera 0. In the last 2 meetings Unión La Calera won 0 and Deportes Limache won 2.

What is the best bet for Unión La Calera vs Deportes Limache?

Deportes Limache +0.5 at 1.51, with a 63% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Unión La Calera against Limache. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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