Predictions › Argentina › Unión (Santa Fe) vs Vélez Sarsfield

Argentina Liga ProfesionalSun 8 Nov, 20:00 Argentina time

Unión (Santa Fe) vs Vélez Sarsfield prediction

15 de Abril

Unión (Santa Fe)Home

1.33 : 1.76

expected goals

Vélez SarsfieldAway

28%Unión (SF)

25%Draw

47%Vélez

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Unión (Santa Fe) vs Vélez Sarsfield is Vélez Sarsfield to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction: Vélez Sarsfield to win
Chance: 47%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Unión (Santa Fe) 1.3, Vélez Sarsfield 1.8
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

82% chanceFair price 1.222 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Vélez Sarsfield to win and Over 2.5

32% chanceFair price 3.141 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Unión (Santa Fe) 28%, the draw 25% and Vélez Sarsfield 47%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Unión (Santa Fe) took 4 points from their last 5 games and Vélez Sarsfield took 10 from 5. Vélez Sarsfield come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Unión (Santa Fe) won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Vélez Sarsfield won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Unión (Santa Fe) score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.7. Vélez Sarsfield score 1.4 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Unión (Santa Fe) games and 7 of Vélez Sarsfield games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Unión (Santa Fe) won 0 and Vélez Sarsfield won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Vélez Sarsfield 2, Unión (Santa Fe) 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Unión (SF)recent form-4%
Vélez recent form+1%

Unión (SF) form D D L L LVélez form D W L D WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Unión (Santa Fe) vs Vélez Sarsfield: Vélez Sarsfield are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Unión (Santa Fe) host Vélez Sarsfield in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sun 8 Nov, 20:00 at 15 de Abril. Our prediction for Unión (Santa Fe) vs Vélez Sarsfield is Vélez Sarsfield to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Unión (Santa Fe) form

Unión (Santa Fe) have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Vélez Sarsfield form

Vélez Sarsfield have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Unión (Santa Fe) won 0, Vélez Sarsfield won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Vélez Sarsfield 2, Unión (Santa Fe) 2.

Our call

We expect Unión (Santa Fe) to score about 1.3 goals and Vélez Sarsfield about 1.8. That points to Vélez Sarsfield to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Vélez Sarsfield to win and Over 2.5 at 3.14.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Unión (SF)	Vélez
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	8
Draws	4	9
Losses	10	3
Goals scored	29	29
Goals conceded	34	20
Scored per game	1.4	1.4
Conceded per game	1.7	1.0
Home record	4W 1D 4L	6W 4D 1L
Away record	2W 3D 6L	2W 5D 2L
Clean sheets	0%	35%
Both teams scored	75%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	60%	1.68
Over 3.5 goals	37%	2.69
Both teams to score	61%	1.63
Unión (Santa Fe) or Draw	53%	1.89
Vélez Sarsfield or Draw	72%	1.40
Unión (Santa Fe) to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.28
Vélez Sarsfield to win and Over 2.5	32%	3.08
Unión (Santa Fe) clean sheet	17%	5.80
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet	27%	3.77

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%

1-29.4%

0-17.4%

2-17.1%

0-27.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Unión (Santa Fe) vs Vélez Sarsfield?

Our prediction for Unión (Santa Fe) vs Vélez Sarsfield is Vélez Sarsfield to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Unión (Santa Fe) vs Vélez Sarsfield?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Unión (Santa Fe) to score 1.3 goals and Vélez Sarsfield 1.8.

Will both teams score in Unión (Santa Fe) vs Vélez Sarsfield?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Unión (Santa Fe) last 20 games and 11 of Vélez Sarsfield last 20.

How are Unión (Santa Fe) playing?

How are Vélez Sarsfield playing?

What happened when Unión (Santa Fe) and Vélez Sarsfield last met?

It ended Vélez Sarsfield 2, Unión (Santa Fe) 2. In the last 1 meeting Unión (Santa Fe) won 0 and Vélez Sarsfield won 0.

What is the best bet for Unión (Santa Fe) vs Vélez Sarsfield?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Unión (SF) against Vélez . A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.