Predictions › Belgium › Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven

Belgian Pro LeagueSun 11 Oct, 14:00 Belgium time

Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven prediction

Stade Joseph Marien

Union St.-GilloiseHome

2.65 : 0.74

expected goals

OH LeuvenAway

78%Union SG

15%Draw

8%OH Leuven

Eagle safe pickUnion St.-Gilloise to win

1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 78% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win at 1.24.

Prediction: Union St.-Gilloise to win
Chance: 78%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Union St.-Gilloise 2.6, OH Leuven 0.7
Best bet: Union St.-Gilloise to win at 1.24
Both teams to score: 49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Union St.-Gilloise to win

76% chancePrice 1.241 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Union St.-Gilloise to win and both score

32% chanceFair price 3.101 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Union St.-Gilloise 78%, the draw 15% and OH Leuven 8%. The bookmakers agree and make Union St.-Gilloise the favourite at 1.24.
2
Recent form
Union St.-Gilloise took 15 points from their last 5 games and OH Leuven took 4 from 5. Union St.-Gilloise come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Union St.-Gilloise won 7 of their last 9 games at home. OH Leuven won 1 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Union St.-Gilloise score 2.3 goals a game and let in 0.7. OH Leuven score 0.8 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Union St.-Gilloise games and 8 of OH Leuven games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Union St.-Gilloise won 0 and OH Leuven won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended OH Leuven 0, Union St.-Gilloise 0.
6
The safest bet
Union St.-Gilloise to win has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Union SGrecent form+7%
OH Leuvenrecent form-3%

Union SG form W W W W WOH Leuven form W D L L LHome edge in this league 17% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven: Union St.-Gilloise are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Union St.-Gilloise host OH Leuven in the Belgian Pro League on Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 at Stade Joseph Marien. Our prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 78% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win at 1.24.

Union St.-Gilloise form

Union St.-Gilloise have 15 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 45 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

OH Leuven form

OH Leuven have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Union St.-Gilloise won 0, OH Leuven won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished OH Leuven 0, Union St.-Gilloise 0.

Our call

We expect Union St.-Gilloise to score about 2.6 goals and OH Leuven about 0.7. That points to Union St.-Gilloise to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win at 1.24. Our bold bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win and both score at 3.10.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Union SG	OH Leuven
Games played	20	20
Wins	15	4
Draws	3	4
Losses	2	12
Goals scored	45	17
Goals conceded	14	31
Scored per game	2.3	0.8
Conceded per game	0.7	1.6
Home record	7W 2D 0L	3W 1D 7L
Away record	8W 1D 2L	1W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	60%	25%
Both teams scored	35%	35%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Union St.-Gilloise to win	76%	1.31	1.24	-5.5%
A Draw	15%	6.71	6.00	-10.5%
OH Leuven to win	6%	17.92	9.50	-47.0%
Over 3.5 goals	42%	2.40	2.05	-14.7%
Under 3.5 goals	52%	1.91	1.65	-13.7%
Union St.-Gilloise -1.5	52%	1.91	1.65	-14.0%
OH Leuven +1.5	42%	2.39	2.00	-16.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	86%	1.17
Over 2.5 goals	66%	1.52
Over 3.5 goals	44%	2.28
Both teams to score	49%	2.04
Union St.-Gilloise or Draw	92%	1.08
OH Leuven or Draw	22%	4.45
Union St.-Gilloise to win and Over 2.5	57%	1.75
OH Leuven to win and Over 2.5	5%	21.78
Union St.-Gilloise clean sheet	48%	2.09
OH Leuven clean sheet	7%	14.10

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.9%

3-010.5%

2-18.8%

1-08.6%

3-17.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven?

Our prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 78% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 3-0 and 2-1. We expect Union St.-Gilloise to score 2.6 goals and OH Leuven 0.7.

Will both teams score in Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Union St.-Gilloise last 20 games and 7 of OH Leuven last 20.

How are Union St.-Gilloise playing?

How are OH Leuven playing?

What happened when Union St.-Gilloise and OH Leuven last met?

It ended OH Leuven 0, Union St.-Gilloise 0. In the last 1 meeting Union St.-Gilloise won 0 and OH Leuven won 0.

What is the best bet for Union St.-Gilloise vs OH Leuven?

Union St.-Gilloise to win at 1.24, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Union SG against OH Leuven. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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