Predictions › Belgium › Union St.-Gilloise vs Racing Genk

Belgian Pro LeagueSun 8 Nov, 17:30 Belgium time

Union St.-Gilloise vs Racing Genk prediction

Stade Joseph Marien

Union St.-GilloiseHome

2.31 : 0.79

expected goals

Racing GenkAway

71%Union SG

18%Draw

11%Genk

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs Racing Genk is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 71% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction: Union St.-Gilloise to win
Chance: 71%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Union St.-Gilloise 2.3, Racing Genk 0.8
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

82% chanceFair price 1.222 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Union St.-Gilloise to win and both score

30% chanceFair price 3.361 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Union St.-Gilloise 71%, the draw 18% and Racing Genk 11%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Union St.-Gilloise took 11 points from their last 5 games and Racing Genk took 8 from 5. Union St.-Gilloise come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Union St.-Gilloise won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Racing Genk won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Union St.-Gilloise score 2.5 goals a game and let in 0.8. Racing Genk score 1.5 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Union St.-Gilloise games and 10 of Racing Genk games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Union St.-Gilloise won 2 and Racing Genk won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Union St.-Gilloise 2, Racing Genk 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Union SGrecent form+3%

Union SG form D W D D WGenk form D W L D DHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Union St.-Gilloise vs Racing Genk: Union St.-Gilloise are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Union St.-Gilloise host Racing Genk in the Belgian Pro League on Sun 8 Nov, 17:30 at Stade Joseph Marien. Our prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs Racing Genk is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 71% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Union St.-Gilloise form

Union St.-Gilloise have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 49 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Racing Genk form

Racing Genk have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Union St.-Gilloise won 2, Racing Genk won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Union St.-Gilloise 2, Racing Genk 1.

Our call

We expect Union St.-Gilloise to score about 2.3 goals and Racing Genk about 0.8. That points to Union St.-Gilloise to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win and both score at 3.36.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Union SG	Genk
Games played	20	20
Wins	13	8
Draws	5	9
Losses	2	3
Goals scored	49	30
Goals conceded	17	20
Scored per game	2.5	1.5
Conceded per game	0.8	1.0
Home record	7W 4D 0L	5W 5D 0L
Away record	6W 1D 2L	3W 4D 3L
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Both teams scored	45%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	60%	1.67
Over 3.5 goals	37%	2.67
Both teams to score	50%	2.02
Union St.-Gilloise or Draw	89%	1.12
Racing Genk or Draw	29%	3.47
Union St.-Gilloise to win and Over 2.5	49%	2.04
Racing Genk to win and Over 2.5	6%	16.36
Union St.-Gilloise clean sheet	46%	2.19
Racing Genk clean sheet	10%	10.08

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-012.1%

1-010.0%

2-19.5%

3-09.3%

1-18.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Union St.-Gilloise vs Racing Genk?

Our prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs Racing Genk is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 71% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs Racing Genk?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Union St.-Gilloise to score 2.3 goals and Racing Genk 0.8.

Will both teams score in Union St.-Gilloise vs Racing Genk?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Union St.-Gilloise last 20 games and 10 of Racing Genk last 20.

How are Union St.-Gilloise playing?

How are Racing Genk playing?

What happened when Union St.-Gilloise and Racing Genk last met?

It ended Union St.-Gilloise 2, Racing Genk 1. In the last 2 meetings Union St.-Gilloise won 2 and Racing Genk won 0.

What is the best bet for Union St.-Gilloise vs Racing Genk?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Union SG against Genk. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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