Predictions › Europa League › Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad

Europa LeagueThu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC

Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad prediction

King Power at Den Dreef Stadion

Union St.-GilloiseHome

1.72 : 1.14

expected goals

Real SociedadAway

50%Union SG

25%Draw

25%Real Sociedad

Eagle value pickUnion St.-Gilloise to win

2.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win at 2.30.

Prediction: Union St.-Gilloise to win
Chance: 50%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Union St.-Gilloise 1.7, Real Sociedad 1.1
Best bet: Union St.-Gilloise to win at 2.30
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

★

Eagle value pick

Union St.-Gilloise to win

47% chancePrice 2.30+8.9% value3 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Union St.-Gilloise to win and Over 2.5

32% chanceFair price 3.161 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Union St.-Gilloise 50%, the draw 25% and Real Sociedad 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Union St.-Gilloise the favourite at 2.30.
2
Recent form
Union St.-Gilloise took 15 points from their last 5 games and Real Sociedad took 7 from 5. Union St.-Gilloise come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Union St.-Gilloise won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Real Sociedad won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Union St.-Gilloise score 2.3 goals a game and let in 0.7. Real Sociedad score 1.6 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Union St.-Gilloise games and 13 of Real Sociedad games in that run.
5
Where the value is
Union St.-Gilloise to win is priced at 2.30. Our fair price is 2.11, so the bookmaker pays about 8.9% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Union SGrecent form+7%

Union SG form W W W W WReal Sociedad form W L L W DHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad: Union St.-Gilloise are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Union St.-Gilloise host Real Sociedad in the Europa League on Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. Our prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win at 2.30.

Union St.-Gilloise form

Union St.-Gilloise have 15 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 45 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Real Sociedad form

Real Sociedad have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Union St.-Gilloise to score about 1.7 goals and Real Sociedad about 1.1. That points to Union St.-Gilloise to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our value bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win at 2.30. Our bold bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win and Over 2.5 at 3.16.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Union SG	Real Sociedad
Games played	20	20
Wins	15	5
Draws	3	6
Losses	2	9
Goals scored	45	31
Goals conceded	14	38
Scored per game	2.3	1.6
Conceded per game	0.7	1.9
Home record	7W 2D 0L	3W 3D 4L
Away record	8W 1D 2L	2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	60%	10%
Both teams scored	35%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Union St.-Gilloise to win	47%	2.11	2.30	+8.9%
A Draw	25%	4.04	3.50	-13.3%
Real Sociedad to win	24%	4.12	2.90	-29.6%
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.93	1.69	-12.3%
Under 2.5 goals	43%	2.35	2.05	-12.7%
Union St.-Gilloise -0.5	42%	2.39	2.15	-9.9%
Real Sociedad +0.5	53%	1.90	1.57	-17.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.27
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.84
Over 3.5 goals	32%	3.11
Both teams to score	57%	1.77
Union St.-Gilloise or Draw	75%	1.33
Real Sociedad or Draw	50%	2.01
Union St.-Gilloise to win and Over 2.5	33%	3.07
Real Sociedad to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.64
Union St.-Gilloise clean sheet	32%	3.14
Real Sociedad clean sheet	18%	5.57

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%

2-19.6%

1-09.2%

2-08.4%

1-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?

Our prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win at 2.30.

What is the score prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Union St.-Gilloise to score 1.7 goals and Real Sociedad 1.1.

Will both teams score in Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Union St.-Gilloise last 20 games and 14 of Real Sociedad last 20.

How are Union St.-Gilloise playing?

How are Real Sociedad playing?

What is the best bet for Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?

Union St.-Gilloise to win at 2.30, with a 47% chance. That price pays about 8.9% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Union SG against Real Sociedad. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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