Predictions › Chile › Universidad de Chile vs Ñublense

Chilean Primera DivisionMon 12 Oct, 21:00 Chile time

Universidad de Chile vs Ñublense prediction

Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Universidad de ChileHome

1.95 : 0.86

expected goals

ÑublenseAway

62%U de Chile

22%Draw

15%Ñublense

Eagle safe pickUniversidad de Chile or Draw

1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Universidad de Chile vs Ñublense is Universidad de Chile to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Universidad de Chile or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction: Universidad de Chile to win
Chance: 62%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Universidad de Chile 1.9, Ñublense 0.9
Best bet: Universidad de Chile or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Universidad de Chile or Draw

82% chanceFair price 1.212 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Universidad de Chile to win and Over 2.5

37% chanceFair price 2.681 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Universidad de Chile 62%, the draw 22% and Ñublense 15%. The bookmakers agree and make Universidad de Chile the favourite at 1.49.
2
Recent form
Universidad de Chile took 9 points from their last 5 games and Ñublense took 3 from 5. Universidad de Chile come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Universidad de Chile won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Ñublense won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Universidad de Chile score 1.7 goals a game and let in 0.8. Ñublense score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Universidad de Chile games and 10 of Ñublense games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Universidad de Chile won 0 and Ñublense won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Ñublense 1, Universidad de Chile 0.
6
The safest bet
Universidad de Chile or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

U de Chilerecent form+3%
Ñublenserecent form-4%

U de Chile form D W W W LÑublense form W L L L LHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Universidad de Chile vs Ñublense: Universidad de Chile are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Universidad de Chile host Ñublense in the Chilean Primera Division on Mon 12 Oct, 21:00 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK. Our prediction for Universidad de Chile vs Ñublense is Universidad de Chile to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Universidad de Chile or Draw at 1.21.

Universidad de Chile form

Universidad de Chile have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Ñublense form

Ñublense have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Universidad de Chile won 0, Ñublense won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Ñublense 1, Universidad de Chile 0.

Our call

We expect Universidad de Chile to score about 1.9 goals and Ñublense about 0.9. That points to Universidad de Chile to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Universidad de Chile or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is Universidad de Chile to win and Over 2.5 at 2.68.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	U de Chile	Ñublense
Games played	20	20
Wins	12	7
Draws	4	6
Losses	4	7
Goals scored	34	25
Goals conceded	17	29
Scored per game	1.7	1.3
Conceded per game	0.8	1.4
Home record	7W 2D 1L	3W 3D 4L
Away record	5W 2D 3L	4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Universidad de Chile to win	61%	1.65	1.49	-9.8%
A Draw	22%	4.52	4.20	-7.1%
Ñublense to win	15%	6.57	6.00	-8.7%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.03	1.77	-12.9%
Under 2.5 goals	45%	2.23	1.91	-14.3%
Universidad de Chile -1.5	37%	2.71	2.30	-15.2%
Ñublense +1.5	58%	1.71	1.50	-12.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.88
Over 3.5 goals	31%	3.24
Both teams to score	50%	2.00
Universidad de Chile or Draw	85%	1.18
Ñublense or Draw	38%	2.65
Universidad de Chile to win and Over 2.5	40%	2.52
Ñublense to win and Over 2.5	8%	11.89
Universidad de Chile clean sheet	42%	2.36
Ñublense clean sheet	14%	7.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.5%

1-011.2%

1-110.7%

2-19.8%

3-07.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Universidad de Chile vs Ñublense?

Our prediction for Universidad de Chile vs Ñublense is Universidad de Chile to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Universidad de Chile or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Universidad de Chile vs Ñublense?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Universidad de Chile to score 1.9 goals and Ñublense 0.9.

Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Ñublense?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Universidad de Chile last 20 games and 11 of Ñublense last 20.

How are Universidad de Chile playing?

How are Ñublense playing?

What happened when Universidad de Chile and Ñublense last met?

It ended Ñublense 1, Universidad de Chile 0. In the last 1 meeting Universidad de Chile won 0 and Ñublense won 1.

What is the best bet for Universidad de Chile vs Ñublense?

Universidad de Chile or Draw at 1.21, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in U de Chile against Ñublense. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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