Predictions › Chile › Universidad de Concepción vs Deportes Limache

Chilean Primera DivisionSun 25 Oct, 23:00 Chile time

Universidad de Concepción vs Deportes Limache prediction

Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Universidad de ConcepciónHome

1.08 : 1.51

expected goals

Deportes LimacheAway

26%U Concepción

27%Draw

46%Limache

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.34

Quick answer

Our prediction for Universidad de Concepción vs Deportes Limache is Deportes Limache to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Prediction: Deportes Limache to win
Chance: 46%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Universidad de Concepción 1.1, Deportes Limache 1.5
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.34
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.341 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Deportes Limache to win and Over 2.5

26% chanceFair price 3.881 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Universidad de Concepción 26%, the draw 27% and Deportes Limache 46%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Universidad de Concepción took 4 points from their last 5 games and Deportes Limache took 7 from 5. Deportes Limache come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Universidad de Concepción won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Deportes Limache won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Universidad de Concepción score 0.7 goals a game and let in 1.8. Deportes Limache score 1.9 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Universidad de Concepción games and 15 of Deportes Limache games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Universidad de Concepción won 0 and Deportes Limache won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Deportes Limache 3, Universidad de Concepción 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

U Concepciónrecent form-3%

U Concepción form D L L L WLimache form D L W W LHome edge in this league 29% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Universidad de Concepción vs Deportes Limache: Deportes Limache are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Universidad de Concepción host Deportes Limache in the Chilean Primera Division on Sun 25 Oct, 23:00 at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo. Our prediction for Universidad de Concepción vs Deportes Limache is Deportes Limache to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Universidad de Concepción form

Universidad de Concepción have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 14 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Deportes Limache form

Deportes Limache have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Universidad de Concepción won 0, Deportes Limache won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Deportes Limache 3, Universidad de Concepción 0.

Our call

We expect Universidad de Concepción to score about 1.1 goals and Deportes Limache about 1.5. That points to Deportes Limache to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34. Our bold bet is Deportes Limache to win and Over 2.5 at 3.88.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	U Concepción	Limache
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	8
Draws	4	2
Losses	12	10
Goals scored	14	37
Goals conceded	35	32
Scored per game	0.7	1.9
Conceded per game	1.8	1.6
Home record	3W 1D 5L	5W 1D 4L
Away record	1W 3D 7L	3W 1D 6L
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Both teams scored	45%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.35
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.09
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.82
Both teams to score	52%	1.92
Universidad de Concepción or Draw	54%	1.87
Deportes Limache or Draw	74%	1.36
Universidad de Concepción to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.83
Deportes Limache to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.67
Universidad de Concepción clean sheet	22%	4.53
Deportes Limache clean sheet	34%	2.94

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%

0-110.6%

1-29.2%

0-28.6%

0-08.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Universidad de Concepción vs Deportes Limache?

Our prediction for Universidad de Concepción vs Deportes Limache is Deportes Limache to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

What is the score prediction for Universidad de Concepción vs Deportes Limache?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Universidad de Concepción to score 1.1 goals and Deportes Limache 1.5.

Will both teams score in Universidad de Concepción vs Deportes Limache?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Universidad de Concepción last 20 games and 10 of Deportes Limache last 20.

How are Universidad de Concepción playing?

How are Deportes Limache playing?

What happened when Universidad de Concepción and Deportes Limache last met?

It ended Deportes Limache 3, Universidad de Concepción 0. In the last 1 meeting Universidad de Concepción won 0 and Deportes Limache won 1.

What is the best bet for Universidad de Concepción vs Deportes Limache?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.34, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in U Concepción against Limache. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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