Predictions › Chile › Universidad de Concepción vs Huachipato

Chilean Primera DivisionFri 2 Oct, 23:00 Chile time

Universidad de Concepción vs Huachipato prediction

Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Universidad de ConcepciónHome

1.44 : 1.12

expected goals

HuachipatoAway

44%U Concepción

28%Draw

29%Huachipato

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Universidad de Concepción vs Huachipato is Universidad de Concepción to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: Universidad de Concepción to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Universidad de Concepción 1.4, Huachipato 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.332 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.571 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Universidad de Concepción 44%, the draw 28% and Huachipato 29%. The bookmakers agree and make Universidad de Concepción the favourite at 2.05.
2
Recent form
Universidad de Concepción took 3 points from their last 5 games and Huachipato took 4 from 5. Huachipato come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Universidad de Concepción won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Huachipato won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Universidad de Concepción score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.7. Huachipato score 1.3 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Universidad de Concepción games and 13 of Huachipato games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Universidad de Concepción won 0 and Huachipato won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Huachipato 5, Universidad de Concepción 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

U Concepciónrecent form-4%
Huachipatorecent form-3%

U Concepción form L L W L LHuachipato form W D L L LHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Universidad de Concepción vs Huachipato: Universidad de Concepción shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Universidad de Concepción host Huachipato in the Chilean Primera Division on Fri 2 Oct, 23:00 at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo. Our prediction for Universidad de Concepción vs Huachipato is Universidad de Concepción to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Universidad de Concepción form

Universidad de Concepción have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Huachipato form

Huachipato have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 39 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Universidad de Concepción won 0, Huachipato won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Huachipato 5, Universidad de Concepción 1.

Our call

We expect Universidad de Concepción to score about 1.4 goals and Huachipato about 1.1. That points to Universidad de Concepción to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.57.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	U Concepción	Huachipato
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	6
Draws	4	4
Losses	11	10
Goals scored	16	26
Goals conceded	34	39
Scored per game	0.8	1.3
Conceded per game	1.7	1.9
Home record	4W 1D 4L	4W 2D 5L
Away record	1W 3D 7L	2W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Universidad de Concepción to win	41%	2.46	2.05	-16.7%
A Draw	27%	3.75	3.45	-8.0%
Huachipato to win	27%	3.65	3.35	-8.2%
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.07	1.71	-17.3%
Under 2.5 goals	45%	2.20	1.95	-11.2%
Universidad de Concepción -0.5	42%	2.35	1.95	-17.1%
Huachipato +0.5	51%	1.95	1.69	-13.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.37
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.12
Over 3.5 goals	25%	3.92
Both teams to score	52%	1.92
Universidad de Concepción or Draw	71%	1.40
Huachipato or Draw	56%	1.78
Universidad de Concepción to win and Over 2.5	25%	3.95
Huachipato to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.34
Universidad de Concepción clean sheet	33%	3.05
Huachipato clean sheet	24%	4.23

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%

1-010.4%

2-19.0%

0-08.5%

2-08.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Universidad de Concepción vs Huachipato?

What is the score prediction for Universidad de Concepción vs Huachipato?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Universidad de Concepción to score 1.4 goals and Huachipato 1.1.

Will both teams score in Universidad de Concepción vs Huachipato?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Universidad de Concepción last 20 games and 11 of Huachipato last 20.

How are Universidad de Concepción playing?

How are Huachipato playing?

What happened when Universidad de Concepción and Huachipato last met?

It ended Huachipato 5, Universidad de Concepción 1. In the last 1 meeting Universidad de Concepción won 0 and Huachipato won 1.

What is the best bet for Universidad de Concepción vs Huachipato?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in U Concepción against Huachipato. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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