Predictions › Peru › Universitario vs Deportivo Moquegua

Peruvian Liga 1Mon 9 Nov, 01:30 Peru time

Universitario vs Deportivo Moquegua prediction

Estadio Monumental de Lima

UniversitarioHome

1.80 : 0.49

expected goals

Deportivo MoqueguaAway

69%Universitario

22%Draw

9%Moquegua

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Universitario vs Deportivo Moquegua is Universitario to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction: Universitario to win
Chance: 69%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Universitario 1.8, Deportivo Moquegua 0.5
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score: 33%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.242 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Universitario to win and Over 2.5

34% chanceFair price 2.941 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Universitario 69%, the draw 22% and Deportivo Moquegua 9%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Universitario took 10 points from their last 5 games and Deportivo Moquegua took 3 from 5. Universitario come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Universitario won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Deportivo Moquegua won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Universitario score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.1. Deportivo Moquegua score 0.7 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Universitario games and 7 of Deportivo Moquegua games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Universitario won 0 and Deportivo Moquegua won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Deportivo Moquegua 0, Universitario 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Universitariorecent form+1%
Moqueguarecent form-3%
Moqueguarest between games-5%

Universitario form D W D L WMoquegua form D L W L LHome edge in this league 45% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Universitario vs Deportivo Moquegua: Universitario are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Universitario host Deportivo Moquegua in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Mon 9 Nov, 01:30 at Estadio Monumental de Lima. Our prediction for Universitario vs Deportivo Moquegua is Universitario to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

Universitario form

Universitario have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Deportivo Moquegua form

Deportivo Moquegua have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 13 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Universitario won 0, Deportivo Moquegua won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Deportivo Moquegua 0, Universitario 0.

Our call

We expect Universitario to score about 1.8 goals and Deportivo Moquegua about 0.5. That points to Universitario to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Universitario to win and Over 2.5 at 2.94.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Universitario	Moquegua
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	3
Draws	7	6
Losses	4	11
Goals scored	31	13
Goals conceded	23	29
Scored per game	1.6	0.7
Conceded per game	1.1	1.4
Home record	4W 4D 1L	1W 5D 4L
Away record	5W 3D 3L	2W 1D 7L
Clean sheets	30%	25%
Both teams scored	55%	35%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	67%	1.49
Over 2.5 goals	40%	2.51
Over 3.5 goals	20%	5.08
Both teams to score	33%	3.06
Universitario or Draw	91%	1.10
Deportivo Moquegua or Draw	31%	3.21
Universitario to win and Over 2.5	35%	2.89
Deportivo Moquegua to win and Over 2.5	3%	31.56
Universitario clean sheet	62%	1.63
Deportivo Moquegua clean sheet	17%	6.03

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-017.8%

2-016.5%

0-010.7%

3-09.9%

1-19.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Universitario vs Deportivo Moquegua?

Our prediction for Universitario vs Deportivo Moquegua is Universitario to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Universitario vs Deportivo Moquegua?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 0-0. We expect Universitario to score 1.8 goals and Deportivo Moquegua 0.5.

Will both teams score in Universitario vs Deportivo Moquegua?

Both teams to score has a 33% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Universitario last 20 games and 7 of Deportivo Moquegua last 20.

How are Universitario playing?

How are Deportivo Moquegua playing?

What happened when Universitario and Deportivo Moquegua last met?

It ended Deportivo Moquegua 0, Universitario 0. In the last 1 meeting Universitario won 0 and Deportivo Moquegua won 0.

What is the best bet for Universitario vs Deportivo Moquegua?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.24, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Universitario against Moquegua. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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