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Predictions › Peru › Universitario vs Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1Sun 11 Oct, 00:00 Peru time

Universitario vs Melgar prediction

Estadio Monumental de Lima

UniversitarioHome
1.23 : 0.98
expected goals
MelgarAway
41%Universitario
30%Draw
29%Melgar
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Universitario vs Melgar is Universitario to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
Universitario to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Universitario 1.2, Melgar 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.131 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Universitario 41%, the draw 30% and Melgar 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Universitario took 10 points from their last 5 games and Melgar took 8 from 5. Universitario come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Universitario won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Melgar won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Universitario score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Melgar score 1.7 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Universitario games and 10 of Melgar games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Universitario won 1 and Melgar won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Melgar 2, Universitario 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Universitariorecent form+3%
  • Melgarrecent form+1%
Universitario form L W D W WMelgar form D W W L DHome edge in this league 45% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Universitario vs Melgar: Universitario shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Universitario host Melgar in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sun 11 Oct, 00:00 at Estadio Monumental de Lima. Our prediction for Universitario vs Melgar is Universitario to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Universitario form

Universitario have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Melgar form

Melgar have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Universitario won 1, Melgar won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Melgar 2, Universitario 1.

Our call

We expect Universitario to score about 1.2 goals and Melgar about 1.0. That points to Universitario to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.13.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

UniversitarioMelgar
Games played2020
Wins910
Draws66
Losses54
Goals scored3134
Goals conceded2520
Scored per game1.61.7
Conceded per game1.31.0
Home record4W 3D 2L6W 2D 2L
Away record5W 3D 3L4W 4D 2L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored60%65%
Over 2.5 goals65%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals65%1.53
Over 2.5 goals38%2.64
Over 3.5 goals18%5.51
Both teams to score45%2.23
Universitario or Draw71%1.40
Melgar or Draw59%1.69
Universitario to win and Over 2.520%5.01
Melgar to win and Over 2.513%7.50
Universitario clean sheet38%2.66
Melgar clean sheet29%3.40

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%
1-012.7%
0-011.8%
0-110.0%
2-08.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Universitario vs Melgar?

Our prediction for Universitario vs Melgar is Universitario to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Universitario vs Melgar?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Universitario to score 1.2 goals and Melgar 1.0.

Will both teams score in Universitario vs Melgar?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Universitario last 20 games and 13 of Melgar last 20.

How are Universitario playing?

Universitario have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Melgar playing?

Melgar have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Universitario and Melgar last met?

It ended Melgar 2, Universitario 1. In the last 2 meetings Universitario won 1 and Melgar won 1.

What is the best bet for Universitario vs Melgar?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Universitario against Melgar. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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