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Predictions › United States › UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons
College FootballSat 17 Oct, 15:30 United States time

UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons prediction

Falcon Stadium

UNLV RebelsAway
24.1 : 23.8
projected points
Air Force FalconsHome
54%UNLV
46%Air Force
Eagle safe pickOver 37.5 points
-300

Quick answer

Our prediction for UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons is UNLV Rebels to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project UNLV Rebels 24.1 and Air Force Falcons 23.8. Our best bet is Over 37.5 points at -300.

Prediction
UNLV Rebels to win
Chance
54%
Projected score
UNLV Rebels 24, Air Force Falcons 24
Projected total
47.9 points
Best bet
Over 37.5 points at -300

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 37.5 points
75% chanceFair price -3002 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Air Force Falcons 46% and UNLV Rebels 54%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Air Force Falcons won 4 of their last 5 and UNLV Rebels won 3 of their last 5. Air Force Falcons come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Air Force Falcons won 3 of their last 8 games at home. UNLV Rebels won 6 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Air Force Falcons score 28.3 points a game and let in 28.7. UNLV Rebels score 31.0 and let in 27.2. Their recent games average 57.1 and 58.2 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Air Force Falcons won 0 and UNLV Rebels won 1. The last one ended UNLV Rebels 51, Air Force Falcons 48.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 37.5 points has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons: UNLV Rebels shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Air Force Falcons host UNLV Rebels in the College Football on Sat 17 Oct, 15:30 at Falcon Stadium. Our prediction for UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons is UNLV Rebels to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project UNLV Rebels 24.1 and Air Force Falcons 23.8. Our best bet is Over 37.5 points at -300.

Air Force Falcons form

Air Force Falcons have 6 wins and 9 losses in their last 15 games, with 425 points scored and 431 conceded. At home they have 3 wins and 5 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

UNLV Rebels form

UNLV Rebels have 10 wins and 6 losses in their last 16 games, with 496 points scored and 435 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Air Force Falcons won 0, UNLV Rebels won 1. Last time out it finished UNLV Rebels 51, Air Force Falcons 48.

Our call

We expect UNLV Rebels to score about 24.1 points and Air Force Falcons about 23.8. That points to UNLV Rebels to win. Our safest bet is Over 37.5 points at -300.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 16 games in all competitions.

Air ForceUNLV
Games played1516
Wins610
Losses96
Points scored425496
Points conceded431435
Scored per game28.331.0
Conceded per game28.727.2
Home record3W 5L4W 2L
Away record3W 4L6W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Air Force spreadCoversFair
Air Force -6.533%+199
Air Force -2.543%+133
Air Force +0.550%-102
Air Force +3.558%-137
Air Force +7.567%-206
Total pointsOverUnder
40.568%32%
44.558%42%
47.551%49%
50.544%56%
54.534%66%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Air Force +3.5 wins if Air Force win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons?

Our prediction for UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons is UNLV Rebels to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project UNLV Rebels 24.1 and Air Force Falcons 23.8. Our best bet is Over 37.5 points at -300.

What is the projected score for UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons?

We project UNLV Rebels 24.1 and Air Force Falcons 23.8, about 47.9 points in total.

How are Air Force Falcons playing?

Air Force Falcons have 6 wins and 9 losses in their last 15 games, with 425 points scored and 431 conceded. At home they have 3 wins and 5 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are UNLV Rebels playing?

UNLV Rebels have 10 wins and 6 losses in their last 16 games, with 496 points scored and 435 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Air Force Falcons and UNLV Rebels last met?

It ended UNLV Rebels 51, Air Force Falcons 48. In the last 1 meeting Air Force Falcons won 0 and UNLV Rebels won 1.

What is the best bet for UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons?

Over 37.5 points at -300, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Air Force against UNLV. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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