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Predictions › Italy › US Avellino vs Padova
Serie BSat 24 Oct, 13:00 Italy time

US Avellino vs Padova prediction

Partenio

US AvellinoHome
1.76 : 1.05
expected goals
PadovaAway
53%Avellino
25%Draw
22%Padova
Eagle safe pickUS Avellino or Draw
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for US Avellino vs Padova is US Avellino to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is US Avellino or Draw at 1.30.

Prediction
US Avellino to win
Chance
53%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
US Avellino 1.8, Padova 1.1
Best bet
US Avellino or Draw at 1.30
Both teams to score
54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

US Avellino or Draw
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

US Avellino to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 3.061 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives US Avellino 53%, the draw 25% and Padova 22%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    US Avellino took 10 points from their last 5 games and Padova took 4 from 5. US Avellino come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    US Avellino won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Padova won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    US Avellino score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.2. Padova score 0.9 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of US Avellino games and 7 of Padova games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, US Avellino won 1 and Padova won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended US Avellino 1, Padova 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    US Avellino or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Avellinorecent form+1%
  • Padovarecent form-1%
Avellino form D L D W WPadova form D L W L DHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

US Avellino vs Padova: US Avellino are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

US Avellino host Padova in the Serie B on Sat 24 Oct, 13:00 at Partenio. Our prediction for US Avellino vs Padova is US Avellino to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is US Avellino or Draw at 1.30.

US Avellino form

US Avellino have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Padova form

Padova have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. US Avellino won 1, Padova won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished US Avellino 1, Padova 0.

Our call

We expect US Avellino to score about 1.8 goals and Padova about 1.1. That points to US Avellino to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is US Avellino or Draw at 1.30. Our bold bet is US Avellino to win and Over 2.5 at 3.06.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AvellinoPadova
Games played2020
Wins97
Draws43
Losses710
Goals scored2519
Goals conceded2427
Scored per game1.30.9
Conceded per game1.21.4
Home record6W 3D 1L4W 3D 3L
Away record3W 1D 6L3W 0D 7L
Clean sheets35%25%
Both teams scored45%45%
Over 2.5 goals45%35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.88
Over 3.5 goals31%3.23
Both teams to score54%1.84
US Avellino or Draw78%1.28
Padova or Draw47%2.15
US Avellino to win and Over 2.534%2.93
Padova to win and Over 2.513%7.82
US Avellino clean sheet35%2.85
Padova clean sheet17%5.82

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%
1-010.0%
2-19.8%
2-09.4%
0-06.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win US Avellino vs Padova?

Our prediction for US Avellino vs Padova is US Avellino to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is US Avellino or Draw at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for US Avellino vs Padova?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect US Avellino to score 1.8 goals and Padova 1.1.

Will both teams score in US Avellino vs Padova?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of US Avellino last 20 games and 9 of Padova last 20.

How are US Avellino playing?

US Avellino have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Padova playing?

Padova have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, D, newest first.

What happened when US Avellino and Padova last met?

It ended US Avellino 1, Padova 0. In the last 2 meetings US Avellino won 1 and Padova won 0.

What is the best bet for US Avellino vs Padova?

US Avellino or Draw at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Avellino against Padova. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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