Predictions › Italy › US Avellino vs Palermo

Serie BSun 13 Sept, 15:15 Italy time

US Avellino vs Palermo prediction

Partenio

US AvellinoHome

1.10 : 1.44

expected goals

PalermoAway

28%Avellino

28%Draw

44%Palermo

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for US Avellino vs Palermo is Palermo to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Palermo to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: US Avellino 1.1, Palermo 1.4
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

US Avellino to win

27% chancePrice 3.85+2.0% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives US Avellino 28%, the draw 28% and Palermo 44%. The bookmakers agree and make Palermo the favourite at 2.05.
2
Recent form
US Avellino took 9 points from their last 5 games and Palermo took 12 from 5. Palermo come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
US Avellino won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Palermo won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
US Avellino score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Palermo score 1.7 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of US Avellino games and 11 of Palermo games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, US Avellino won 0 and Palermo won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Palermo 2, US Avellino 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Avellinorecent form-1%
Palermorecent form+7%

Avellino form W W L L LPalermo form W W W W WHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

US Avellino vs Palermo: Palermo shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

US Avellino host Palermo in the Serie B on Sun 13 Sept, 15:15 at Partenio. Our prediction for US Avellino vs Palermo is Palermo to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

US Avellino form

US Avellino have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Palermo form

Palermo have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. US Avellino won 0, Palermo won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Palermo 2, US Avellino 0.

Our call

We expect US Avellino to score about 1.1 goals and Palermo about 1.4. That points to Palermo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is US Avellino to win at 3.85.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Avellino	Palermo
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	12
Draws	3	4
Losses	9	4
Goals scored	21	34
Goals conceded	25	23
Scored per game	1.1	1.7
Conceded per game	1.3	1.1
Home record	5W 2D 3L	9W 1D 0L
Away record	3W 1D 6L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	35%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
US Avellino to win	27%	3.77	3.85	+2.0%
A Draw	26%	3.82	3.25	-14.9%
Palermo to win	42%	2.40	2.05	-14.7%
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.25	2.05	-9.0%
Under 2.5 goals	53%	1.88	1.77	-6.0%
US Avellino +0.5	53%	1.87	1.74	-7.1%
Palermo -0.5	44%	2.27	1.95	-13.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.37
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.14
Over 3.5 goals	25%	3.96
Both teams to score	52%	1.93
US Avellino or Draw	56%	1.79
Palermo or Draw	72%	1.39
US Avellino to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.48
Palermo to win and Over 2.5	25%	3.93
US Avellino clean sheet	24%	4.24
Palermo clean sheet	33%	3.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%

0-110.6%

1-29.0%

0-08.6%

0-28.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win US Avellino vs Palermo?

Our prediction for US Avellino vs Palermo is Palermo to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for US Avellino vs Palermo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect US Avellino to score 1.1 goals and Palermo 1.4.

Will both teams score in US Avellino vs Palermo?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of US Avellino last 20 games and 9 of Palermo last 20.

How are US Avellino playing?

How are Palermo playing?

What happened when US Avellino and Palermo last met?

It ended Palermo 2, US Avellino 0. In the last 2 meetings US Avellino won 0 and Palermo won 1.

What is the best bet for US Avellino vs Palermo?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Avellino against Palermo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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