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Predictions › Italy › US Avellino vs Pisa
Serie BSun 1 Nov, 14:00 Italy time

US Avellino vs Pisa prediction

Partenio

US AvellinoHome
1.38 : 1.61
expected goals
PisaAway
32%Avellino
26%Draw
42%Pisa
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for US Avellino vs Pisa is Pisa to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
Pisa to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
US Avellino 1.4, Pisa 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Pisa to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives US Avellino 32%, the draw 26% and Pisa 42%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    US Avellino took 8 points from their last 5 games and Pisa took 10 from 5. Pisa come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    US Avellino won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Pisa won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    US Avellino score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.2. Pisa score 1.0 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of US Avellino games and 15 of Pisa games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Avellinorecent form+1%
  • Pisarecent form-1%
Avellino form D W L D WPisa form D W D L LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

US Avellino vs Pisa: Pisa shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

US Avellino host Pisa in the Serie B on Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 at Partenio. Our prediction for US Avellino vs Pisa is Pisa to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

US Avellino form

US Avellino have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Pisa form

Pisa have 5 wins, 1 draw and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect US Avellino to score about 1.4 goals and Pisa about 1.6. That points to Pisa to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Pisa to win and Over 2.5 at 3.66.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AvellinoPisa
Games played2020
Wins95
Draws41
Losses714
Goals scored2520
Goals conceded2438
Scored per game1.31.0
Conceded per game1.21.9
Home record6W 3D 1L3W 0D 7L
Away record3W 1D 6L2W 1D 7L
Clean sheets35%10%
Both teams scored45%40%
Over 2.5 goals45%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.24
Over 2.5 goals57%1.75
Over 3.5 goals35%2.87
Both teams to score60%1.65
US Avellino or Draw58%1.73
Pisa or Draw68%1.47
US Avellino to win and Over 2.521%4.75
Pisa to win and Over 2.528%3.53
US Avellino clean sheet20%4.99
Pisa clean sheet25%3.96

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%
1-29.0%
2-17.7%
0-17.5%
0-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win US Avellino vs Pisa?

Our prediction for US Avellino vs Pisa is Pisa to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for US Avellino vs Pisa?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect US Avellino to score 1.4 goals and Pisa 1.6.

Will both teams score in US Avellino vs Pisa?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of US Avellino last 20 games and 8 of Pisa last 20.

How are US Avellino playing?

US Avellino have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Pisa playing?

Pisa have 5 wins, 1 draw and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for US Avellino vs Pisa?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Avellino against Pisa. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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