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Predictions › United States › USC Trojans vs Penn State Nittany Lions
College FootballSat 10 Oct, 19:30 United States time

USC Trojans vs Penn State Nittany Lions prediction

Beaver Stadium

USC TrojansAway
27.9 : 30.2
projected points
Penn State Nittany LionsHome
51%USC
49%Penn State
Eagle safe pickPenn State +8.5
-304

Quick answer

Our prediction for USC Trojans vs Penn State Nittany Lions is USC Trojans to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project USC Trojans 27.9 and Penn State Nittany Lions 30.2. Our best bet is Penn State +8.5 at -304.

Prediction
USC Trojans to win
Chance
51%
Projected score
USC Trojans 28, Penn State Nittany Lions 30
Projected total
58.1 points
Best bet
Penn State +8.5 at -304

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Penn State +8.5
75% chanceFair price -3042 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Penn State Nittany Lions 49% and USC Trojans 51%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Penn State Nittany Lions the favourite at -115, so take care with this one.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Penn State Nittany Lions won 4 of their last 5 and USC Trojans won 4 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Penn State Nittany Lions won 4 of their last 8 games at home. USC Trojans won 3 of their last 7 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Penn State Nittany Lions score 31.3 points a game and let in 20.1. USC Trojans score 33.3 and let in 24.9. Their recent games average 51.5 and 58.1 points in total, and the market line is 58.5.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Penn State +8.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

USC Trojans vs Penn State Nittany Lions: USC Trojans shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Penn State Nittany Lions host USC Trojans in the College Football on Sat 10 Oct, 19:30 at Beaver Stadium. Our prediction for USC Trojans vs Penn State Nittany Lions is USC Trojans to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project USC Trojans 27.9 and Penn State Nittany Lions 30.2. Our best bet is Penn State +8.5 at -304.

Penn State Nittany Lions form

Penn State Nittany Lions have 8 wins and 7 losses in their last 15 games, with 470 points scored and 302 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

USC Trojans form

USC Trojans have 11 wins and 5 losses in their last 16 games, with 532 points scored and 398 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 4 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect USC Trojans to score about 27.9 points and Penn State Nittany Lions about 30.2. That points to USC Trojans to win. Our safest bet is Penn State +8.5 at -304.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 16 games in all competitions.

Penn StateUSC
Games played1516
Wins811
Losses75
Points scored470532
Points conceded302398
Scored per game31.333.3
Conceded per game20.124.9
Home record4W 4L8W 1L
Away record4W 3L3W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Penn State to win49%+102-115-7.5%
USC to win45%+124-105-12.8%
Penn State -1.549%+104-108-5.7%
USC +1.545%+121-112-14.5%
Over 58.5 points46%+117-110-12.0%
Under 58.5 points48%+108-110-8.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Penn State spreadCoversFair
Penn State -9.533%+206
Penn State -5.542%+138
Penn State -2.549%+102
Penn State +0.557%-132
Penn State +4.566%-198
Total pointsOverUnder
51.566%34%
55.556%44%
58.549%51%
61.542%58%
65.532%68%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Penn State +3.5 wins if Penn State win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
College Football

Raiola Leads Oregon Past USC After Moore Leaves in Ambulance

Dylan Raiola threw two touchdowns after starting quarterback Dante Moore was injured, leading Oregon to a 41-27 road win over USC.

27 Sept 2026
College Football

Lincoln Riley Faces Ultimate Test as USC Hosts Oregon

With a perfect 4-0 record, head coach Lincoln Riley faces intense pressure as the USC Trojans prepare to host Oregon.

24 Sept 2026
College Football

Trojans Lose Top Target Trent Mosley Ahead of Rutgers Road Trip

USC freshman wide receiver Trent Mosley is out with an undisclosed injury, leaving the Trojans without their leading receiver for the Rutgers game.

17 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win USC Trojans vs Penn State Nittany Lions?

Our prediction for USC Trojans vs Penn State Nittany Lions is USC Trojans to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project USC Trojans 27.9 and Penn State Nittany Lions 30.2. Our best bet is Penn State +8.5 at -304.

What is the projected score for USC Trojans vs Penn State Nittany Lions?

We project USC Trojans 27.9 and Penn State Nittany Lions 30.2, about 58.1 points in total.

How are Penn State Nittany Lions playing?

Penn State Nittany Lions have 8 wins and 7 losses in their last 15 games, with 470 points scored and 302 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are USC Trojans playing?

USC Trojans have 11 wins and 5 losses in their last 16 games, with 532 points scored and 398 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 4 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for USC Trojans vs Penn State Nittany Lions?

Penn State +8.5 at -304, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Penn State against USC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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