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Predictions › United States › Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos
College FootballSat 3 Oct, 19:30 United States time

Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos prediction

Albertsons Stadium

Utah State AggiesAway
15.7 : 35.3
projected points
Boise State BroncosHome
13%Utah State
87%Boise St
Eagle safe pickUtah State +30.5
-305

Quick answer

Our prediction for Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos is Boise State Broncos to win, with a 87% chance. We project Utah State Aggies 15.7 and Boise State Broncos 35.3. Our best bet is Utah State +30.5 at -305.

Prediction
Boise State Broncos to win
Chance
87%
Projected score
Utah State Aggies 16, Boise State Broncos 35
Projected total
51.0 points
Best bet
Utah State +30.5 at -305

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Utah State +30.5
75% chanceFair price -3052 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Boise State Broncos 87% and Utah State Aggies 13%. The bookmakers agree and make Boise State Broncos the favourite at -1449.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Boise State Broncos won 3 of their last 5 and Utah State Aggies won 1 of their last 5. Boise State Broncos come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Boise State Broncos won 7 of their last 8 games at home. Utah State Aggies won 1 of their last 7 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Boise State Broncos score 30.9 points a game and let in 23.4. Utah State Aggies score 26.9 and let in 26.7. Their recent games average 54.3 and 53.7 points in total, and the market line is 50.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Boise State Broncos won 1 and Utah State Aggies won 0. The last one ended Utah State Aggies 24, Boise State Broncos 25.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Utah State +30.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Boise Strest between games-5%
  • Utah Staterest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos: Boise State Broncos are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Boise State Broncos host Utah State Aggies in the College Football on Sat 3 Oct, 19:30 at Albertsons Stadium. Our prediction for Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos is Boise State Broncos to win, with a 87% chance. We project Utah State Aggies 15.7 and Boise State Broncos 35.3. Our best bet is Utah State +30.5 at -305.

Boise State Broncos form

Boise State Broncos have 11 wins and 5 losses in their last 16 games, with 495 points scored and 374 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Utah State Aggies form

Utah State Aggies have 6 wins and 9 losses in their last 15 games, with 404 points scored and 401 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 6 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Boise State Broncos won 1, Utah State Aggies won 0. Last time out it finished Utah State Aggies 24, Boise State Broncos 25.

Our call

We expect Utah State Aggies to score about 15.7 points and Boise State Broncos about 35.3. That points to Boise State Broncos to win. Our safest bet is Utah State +30.5 at -305.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 16 games in all competitions.

Boise StUtah State
Games played1615
Wins116
Losses59
Points scored495404
Points conceded374401
Scored per game30.926.9
Conceded per game23.426.7
Home record7W 1L5W 3L
Away record4W 4L1W 6L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Boise St to win87%-682-1449-6.8%
Utah State to win8%+1120+850-22.1%
Boise St -20.545%+124-108-13.9%
Utah State +20.549%+104-112-7.1%
Over 50.5 points48%+108-115-10.1%
Under 50.5 points46%+119-105-10.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Boise St spreadCoversFair
Boise St -26.533%+200
Boise St -22.543%+133
Boise St -19.550%-101
Boise St -16.558%-137
Boise St -12.567%-205
Total pointsOverUnder
43.568%32%
47.559%41%
50.551%49%
53.544%56%
57.534%66%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Boise St +3.5 wins if Boise St win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos?

Our prediction for Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos is Boise State Broncos to win, with a 87% chance. We project Utah State Aggies 15.7 and Boise State Broncos 35.3. Our best bet is Utah State +30.5 at -305.

What is the projected score for Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos?

We project Utah State Aggies 15.7 and Boise State Broncos 35.3, about 51.0 points in total.

How are Boise State Broncos playing?

Boise State Broncos have 11 wins and 5 losses in their last 16 games, with 495 points scored and 374 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Utah State Aggies playing?

Utah State Aggies have 6 wins and 9 losses in their last 15 games, with 404 points scored and 401 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 6 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Boise State Broncos and Utah State Aggies last met?

It ended Utah State Aggies 24, Boise State Broncos 25. In the last 1 meeting Boise State Broncos won 1 and Utah State Aggies won 0.

What is the best bet for Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos?

Utah State +30.5 at -305, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Boise St against Utah State. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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