Predictions › Peru › UTC vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Peruvian Liga 1Sat 31 Oct, 18:00 Peru time

UTC vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction

Estadio Germán Contreras

UTCHome

0.84 : 1.09

expected goals

Deportivo GarcilasoAway

27%UTC

33%Draw

40%Garcilaso

Eagle safe pickDeportivo Garcilaso or Draw

1.35

Quick answer

Our prediction for UTC vs Deportivo Garcilaso is Deportivo Garcilaso to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Deportivo Garcilaso or Draw at 1.35.

Prediction: Deportivo Garcilaso to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 0-0
Expected goals: UTC 0.8, Deportivo Garcilaso 1.1
Best bet: Deportivo Garcilaso or Draw at 1.35
Both teams to score: 38%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Deportivo Garcilaso or Draw

74% chanceFair price 1.351 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-0

15% chanceFair price 6.531 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives UTC 27%, the draw 33% and Deportivo Garcilaso 40%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
UTC took 0 points from their last 5 games and Deportivo Garcilaso took 6 from 5. Deportivo Garcilaso come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
UTC won 0 of their last 10 games at home. Deportivo Garcilaso won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
UTC score 1.0 goals a game and let in 2.0. Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.6 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of UTC games and 9 of Deportivo Garcilaso games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, UTC won 0 and Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Deportivo Garcilaso 2, UTC 0.
6
The safest bet
Deportivo Garcilaso or Draw has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

UTCrecent form-7%
Garcilasorecent form+4%
UTCrest between games-2%

UTC form L L L L LGarcilaso form W L W W WHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

UTC vs Deportivo Garcilaso: Deportivo Garcilaso shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

UTC host Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sat 31 Oct, 18:00 at Estadio Germán Contreras. Our prediction for UTC vs Deportivo Garcilaso is Deportivo Garcilaso to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Deportivo Garcilaso or Draw at 1.35.

UTC form

UTC have 0 wins, 6 draws and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 41 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Deportivo Garcilaso form

Deportivo Garcilaso have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. UTC won 0, Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Deportivo Garcilaso 2, UTC 0.

Our call

We expect UTC to score about 0.8 goals and Deportivo Garcilaso about 1.1. That points to Deportivo Garcilaso to win, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Deportivo Garcilaso or Draw at 1.35. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-0 at 6.53.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	UTC	Garcilaso
Games played	20	20
Wins	0	12
Draws	6	2
Losses	14	6
Goals scored	20	32
Goals conceded	41	19
Scored per game	1.0	1.6
Conceded per game	2.0	0.9
Home record	0W 5D 5L	9W 0D 1L
Away record	0W 1D 9L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	10%	45%
Both teams scored	65%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	58%	1.72
Over 2.5 goals	30%	3.29
Over 3.5 goals	13%	7.66
Both teams to score	38%	2.60
UTC or Draw	60%	1.68
Deportivo Garcilaso or Draw	73%	1.37
UTC to win and Over 2.5	10%	9.59
Deportivo Garcilaso to win and Over 2.5	17%	6.01
UTC clean sheet	34%	2.98
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet	43%	2.31

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-015.3%

0-115.1%

1-114.1%

1-011.4%

0-28.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win UTC vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

What is the score prediction for UTC vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-1. We expect UTC to score 0.8 goals and Deportivo Garcilaso 1.1.

Will both teams score in UTC vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Both teams to score has a 38% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of UTC last 20 games and 8 of Deportivo Garcilaso last 20.

How are UTC playing?

How are Deportivo Garcilaso playing?

What happened when UTC and Deportivo Garcilaso last met?

It ended Deportivo Garcilaso 2, UTC 0. In the last 2 meetings UTC won 0 and Deportivo Garcilaso won 1.

What is the best bet for UTC vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Deportivo Garcilaso or Draw at 1.35, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in UTC against Garcilaso. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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