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Predictions › Peru › UTC vs Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1Fri 23 Oct, 18:00 Peru time

UTC vs Melgar prediction

Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

UTCHome
0.77 : 1.64
expected goals
MelgarAway
17%UTC
26%Draw
58%Melgar
Eagle safe pickMelgar or Draw
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for UTC vs Melgar is Melgar to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Melgar or Draw at 1.23.

Prediction
Melgar to win
Chance
58%
Most likely score
0-1
Expected goals
UTC 0.8, Melgar 1.6
Best bet
Melgar or Draw at 1.23
Both teams to score
44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Melgar or Draw
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Melgar to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.401 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives UTC 17%, the draw 26% and Melgar 58%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    UTC took 0 points from their last 5 games and Melgar took 8 from 5. Melgar come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    UTC won 0 of their last 10 games at home. Melgar won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    UTC score 1.1 goals a game and let in 2.1. Melgar score 1.8 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of UTC games and 11 of Melgar games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, UTC won 0 and Melgar won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Melgar 2, UTC 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Melgar or Draw has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • UTCrecent form-6%
  • Melgarrecent form+1%
  • UTCrest between games-2%
  • Melgarrest between games-2%
UTC form D L L L LMelgar form D D W W LHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

UTC vs Melgar: Melgar are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

UTC host Melgar in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Fri 23 Oct, 18:00 at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón. Our prediction for UTC vs Melgar is Melgar to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Melgar or Draw at 1.23.

UTC form

UTC have 0 wins, 6 draws and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Melgar form

Melgar have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. UTC won 0, Melgar won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Melgar 2, UTC 0.

Our call

We expect UTC to score about 0.8 goals and Melgar about 1.6. That points to Melgar to win, with 0-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Melgar or Draw at 1.23. Our bold bet is Melgar to win and Over 2.5 at 3.40.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

UTCMelgar
Games played2020
Wins010
Draws66
Losses144
Goals scored2135
Goals conceded4221
Scored per game1.11.8
Conceded per game2.11.1
Home record0W 5D 5L6W 2D 2L
Away record0W 1D 9L4W 4D 2L
Clean sheets10%25%
Both teams scored70%65%
Over 2.5 goals65%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.43
Over 2.5 goals43%2.31
Over 3.5 goals22%4.49
Both teams to score44%2.28
UTC or Draw42%2.36
Melgar or Draw83%1.20
UTC to win and Over 2.58%12.87
Melgar to win and Over 2.531%3.19
UTC clean sheet19%5.16
Melgar clean sheet46%2.15

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-114.1%
0-212.1%
1-112.0%
0-09.7%
1-29.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win UTC vs Melgar?

Our prediction for UTC vs Melgar is Melgar to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Melgar or Draw at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for UTC vs Melgar?

0-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-2 and 1-1. We expect UTC to score 0.8 goals and Melgar 1.6.

Will both teams score in UTC vs Melgar?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of UTC last 20 games and 13 of Melgar last 20.

How are UTC playing?

UTC have 0 wins, 6 draws and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Melgar playing?

Melgar have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when UTC and Melgar last met?

It ended Melgar 2, UTC 0. In the last 1 meeting UTC won 0 and Melgar won 1.

What is the best bet for UTC vs Melgar?

Melgar or Draw at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in UTC against Melgar. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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