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Predictions › Peru › UTC vs Sporting Cristal
Peruvian Liga 1Sun 11 Oct, 18:00 Peru time

UTC vs Sporting Cristal prediction

Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

UTCHome
1.20 : 1.69
expected goals
Sporting CristalAway
26%UTC
25%Draw
48%Sporting Cristal
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for UTC vs Sporting Cristal is Sporting Cristal to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Sporting Cristal to win
Chance
48%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
UTC 1.2, Sporting Cristal 1.7
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sporting Cristal to win and Over 2.5
30% chanceFair price 3.281 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives UTC 26%, the draw 25% and Sporting Cristal 48%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    UTC took 0 points from their last 5 games and Sporting Cristal took 9 from 5. Sporting Cristal come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    UTC won 0 of their last 10 games at home. Sporting Cristal won 1 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    UTC score 1.1 goals a game and let in 2.1. Sporting Cristal score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of UTC games and 11 of Sporting Cristal games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, UTC won 0 and Sporting Cristal won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sporting Cristal 3, UTC 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • UTCrecent form-7%
  • Sporting Cristalrecent form+1%
UTC form L L L L LSporting Cristal form W W W L LHome edge in this league 45% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

UTC vs Sporting Cristal: Sporting Cristal are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

UTC host Sporting Cristal in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sun 11 Oct, 18:00 at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón. Our prediction for UTC vs Sporting Cristal is Sporting Cristal to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

UTC form

UTC have 0 wins, 7 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Sporting Cristal form

Sporting Cristal have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. UTC won 0, Sporting Cristal won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sporting Cristal 3, UTC 2.

Our call

We expect UTC to score about 1.2 goals and Sporting Cristal about 1.7. That points to Sporting Cristal to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Sporting Cristal to win and Over 2.5 at 3.28.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

UTCSporting Cristal
Games played2020
Wins08
Draws73
Losses139
Goals scored2232
Goals conceded4228
Scored per game1.11.6
Conceded per game2.11.4
Home record0W 6D 4L7W 1D 1L
Away record0W 1D 9L1W 2D 8L
Clean sheets10%20%
Both teams scored75%60%
Over 2.5 goals65%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.82
Over 3.5 goals33%3.06
Both teams to score58%1.74
UTC or Draw52%1.93
Sporting Cristal or Draw74%1.36
UTC to win and Over 2.516%6.11
Sporting Cristal to win and Over 2.531%3.18
UTC clean sheet18%5.41
Sporting Cristal clean sheet30%3.30

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.0%
1-29.5%
0-18.8%
0-28.0%
2-16.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win UTC vs Sporting Cristal?

Our prediction for UTC vs Sporting Cristal is Sporting Cristal to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for UTC vs Sporting Cristal?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect UTC to score 1.2 goals and Sporting Cristal 1.7.

Will both teams score in UTC vs Sporting Cristal?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of UTC last 20 games and 12 of Sporting Cristal last 20.

How are UTC playing?

UTC have 0 wins, 7 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Sporting Cristal playing?

Sporting Cristal have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when UTC and Sporting Cristal last met?

It ended Sporting Cristal 3, UTC 2. In the last 1 meeting UTC won 0 and Sporting Cristal won 1.

What is the best bet for UTC vs Sporting Cristal?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in UTC against Sporting Cristal. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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