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Predictions › Japan › V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
J1 LeagueWed 21 Oct, 10:00 Japan time

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction

PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank

V-Varen NagasakiHome
0.94 : 1.57
expected goals
Sanfrecce HiroshimaAway
22%V-Varen
27%Draw
51%Sanfreece
Eagle safe pickSanfrecce Hiroshima or Draw
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Draw at 1.31.

Prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win
Chance
51%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
V-Varen Nagasaki 0.9, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.6
Best bet
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Draw at 1.31
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Draw
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.651 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives V-Varen Nagasaki 22%, the draw 27% and Sanfrecce Hiroshima 51%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    V-Varen Nagasaki took 6 points from their last 5 games and Sanfrecce Hiroshima took 12 from 5. Sanfrecce Hiroshima come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    V-Varen Nagasaki won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 6 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    V-Varen Nagasaki score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.5. Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.1 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of V-Varen Nagasaki games and 10 of Sanfrecce Hiroshima games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, V-Varen Nagasaki won 0 and Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2, V-Varen Nagasaki 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Draw has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Sanfreecerecent form+3%
  • V-Varenrest between games-5%
  • Sanfreecerest between games-5%
V-Varen form D D W L DSanfreece form D W W L WHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Sanfrecce Hiroshima are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

V-Varen Nagasaki host Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League on Wed 21 Oct, 10:00 at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank. Our prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Draw at 1.31.

V-Varen Nagasaki form

V-Varen Nagasaki have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima form

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. V-Varen Nagasaki won 0, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2, V-Varen Nagasaki 0.

Our call

We expect V-Varen Nagasaki to score about 0.9 goals and Sanfrecce Hiroshima about 1.6. That points to Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Draw at 1.31. Our bold bet is Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win and Over 2.5 at 3.65.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

V-VarenSanfreece
Games played2020
Wins613
Draws55
Losses92
Goals scored2342
Goals conceded3015
Scored per game1.12.1
Conceded per game1.50.8
Home record4W 4D 2L7W 3D 0L
Away record2W 1D 7L6W 2D 2L
Clean sheets15%45%
Both teams scored60%50%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.39
Over 2.5 goals46%2.18
Over 3.5 goals24%4.10
Both teams to score49%2.04
V-Varen Nagasaki or Draw49%2.05
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Draw78%1.28
V-Varen Nagasaki to win and Over 2.511%8.77
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win and Over 2.529%3.43
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet21%4.79
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet39%2.56

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%
0-112.0%
0-210.0%
1-29.4%
0-08.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Our prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Draw at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-2. We expect V-Varen Nagasaki to score 0.9 goals and Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.6.

Will both teams score in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of V-Varen Nagasaki last 20 games and 10 of Sanfrecce Hiroshima last 20.

How are V-Varen Nagasaki playing?

V-Varen Nagasaki have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Sanfrecce Hiroshima playing?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when V-Varen Nagasaki and Sanfrecce Hiroshima last met?

It ended Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2, V-Varen Nagasaki 0. In the last 2 meetings V-Varen Nagasaki won 0 and Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 2.

What is the best bet for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Draw at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in V-Varen against Sanfreece. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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