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Predictions › Japan › V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy 1969
J1 LeagueSun 1 Nov, 05:00 Japan time

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy 1969 prediction

PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank

V-Varen NagasakiHome
1.46 : 0.87
expected goals
Tokyo Verdy 1969Away
50%V-Varen
28%Draw
22%Tokyo Verdy
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy 1969 is V-Varen Nagasaki to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction
V-Varen Nagasaki to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
V-Varen Nagasaki 1.5, Tokyo Verdy 1969 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.272 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

V-Varen Nagasaki to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 3.941 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives V-Varen Nagasaki 50%, the draw 28% and Tokyo Verdy 1969 22%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    V-Varen Nagasaki took 8 points from their last 5 games and Tokyo Verdy 1969 took 2 from 5. V-Varen Nagasaki come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    V-Varen Nagasaki won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Tokyo Verdy 1969 won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    V-Varen Nagasaki score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Tokyo Verdy 1969 score 0.7 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of V-Varen Nagasaki games and 8 of Tokyo Verdy 1969 games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Tokyo Verdyrecent form-4%
  • V-Varenrest between games-5%
  • Tokyo Verdyrest between games-5%
V-Varen form D L D D WTokyo Verdy form D L L L DHome edge in this league 15% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy 1969: V-Varen Nagasaki are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

V-Varen Nagasaki host Tokyo Verdy 1969 in the J1 League on Sun 1 Nov, 05:00 at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank. Our prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy 1969 is V-Varen Nagasaki to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

V-Varen Nagasaki form

V-Varen Nagasaki have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, W, newest first.

Tokyo Verdy 1969 form

Tokyo Verdy 1969 have 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 14 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect V-Varen Nagasaki to score about 1.5 goals and Tokyo Verdy 1969 about 0.9. That points to V-Varen Nagasaki to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is V-Varen Nagasaki to win and Over 2.5 at 3.94.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

V-VarenTokyo Verdy
Games played2020
Wins73
Draws57
Losses810
Goals scored2714
Goals conceded2935
Scored per game1.40.7
Conceded per game1.41.8
Home record5W 4D 2L2W 2D 7L
Away record2W 1D 6L1W 5D 3L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored60%45%
Over 2.5 goals55%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%1.46
Over 2.5 goals41%2.43
Over 3.5 goals21%4.85
Both teams to score45%2.21
V-Varen Nagasaki or Draw78%1.28
Tokyo Verdy 1969 or Draw50%2.01
V-Varen Nagasaki to win and Over 2.526%3.80
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to win and Over 2.510%9.72
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet42%2.39
Tokyo Verdy 1969 clean sheet23%4.29

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.5%
1-113.1%
0-010.5%
2-010.4%
2-19.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy 1969?

Our prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy 1969 is V-Varen Nagasaki to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy 1969?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect V-Varen Nagasaki to score 1.5 goals and Tokyo Verdy 1969 0.9.

Will both teams score in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy 1969?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of V-Varen Nagasaki last 20 games and 9 of Tokyo Verdy 1969 last 20.

How are V-Varen Nagasaki playing?

V-Varen Nagasaki have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, W, newest first.

How are Tokyo Verdy 1969 playing?

Tokyo Verdy 1969 have 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 14 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy 1969?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in V-Varen against Tokyo Verdy. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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